Time to reach into my mail sack

Before I say anything else, let me announce how pleased I am with the cartoon photo I found to represent my mailbag entry. I appreciate the mailbag that says "Mail" and has a picture of a piece of mail on it, the way I appreciate a sack with the dollar sign on it to represent that it has money in it. Onward we go now...

In response to my prior post, loyal reader, fellow radio professional, and friend (obviously, as no non-friends of mine read my blog) Joe provoked enough thought worth replying to, so I wanted to make a new entry for it. Partly also because I only make like 5 postings per month on this blog anymore, and that's lame, so I need to pad my stats some. Anyway, Joe writes...

Though I can't prove it...I think it'd be fairly easy to come closer on overall division record than you might think. With 4 teams...I bet it'd average out in the long run to something close to what you'd expect...even if you're a mile off on two or more teams. I'm no fan of referencing this stat.

The Lions going 0-16 was AWESOME. They'll still suck for years to come...which sucks...but at least they accomplished a monumental task this year and didn't 1-15 it like a bunch of other scrub teams. Didn't your Jets have a 1-15 year about 10 years ago?

Thanks for reading Joe! You do make a good point about the overall division records - I could miss badly on two teams, one over and one under, yet come close to my estimate. I had not fully taken that into account in the predictions where I graded myself high mainly based on this criterion. However, it's not as easy when predicting entire divisions to be far above or below .500. The idea was to predict divisional strength in general, so I'm still going to pathetically cling to how close I came to, for instance, the NFC East's 38 wins and NFC West's 22 wins.

And I agree about the Lions - no sense in just one-and-fifteening it like many other teams. May as well go full-on historic with it. Now, when you mention them as "your" (as in "my") Jets, I can refer you to this, as my Jet fandom went from summer 1997 to September 2008 (arrived with Parcells/Martin era and left with Pennington)...but yes, the Rich Kotite/Frank Reich/Adrian Murrell Jets went 1-15 in 1996, and boy were they laughable. And on that note I will encourage you to join me in leaving your abusive NFL relationship and seeking refuge with the kind of winning team you deserve. In other words, I can sum up my persuasive argument thusly...Big Blue, Big Blue, Big Blue! (And I don't mean the University of Michigan.)

2008 NFL Season in Review (and predictions revisited)

What would a prediction be without revisiting it when it can truly be evaluated? Not doing so would be like evaluating a draft class before they ever take the field, and not doing it at the end of the season, or even the season after. Which you actually never see. Anyway, here we go! We'll start with the final season standings, with my predictions in parenthesis. And I'll grade my predictions for each division.

AFC

EAST

Dolphins 11-5 (7-9)
Patriots 11-5 (11-5)
Jets 9-7 (10-6)
Bills 7-9 (8-8)

TOTAL: 38-26 (36-28)

GRADE: A. I don't think anyone predicted the Dolphins would improve the way they did. I believe Chad Pennington is the MVP. The Jets deserved what they got this season (Brett Favre) for dumping Chad. Other than Miami, my predictions were all within one game of actual records. And I successfully tabbed this to be a strong division.

NORTH

Steelers 12-4 (11-5)
*Ravens 11-5 (5-11)
Bengals 4-11-1 (6-10)
Browns 4-12 (9-7)

TOTAL: 31-32-1 (31-33)

GRADE: C+. Sure, I got it right with the Steelers, but they are there every year. Really a model organization. But boy did I miss on the Ravens. And can someone remind me why I thought the Browns would be good? The only saving grace here was that I was so close on overall division strength - a mere 1/2 game away. Also I correctly predicted the Bengals would be a mess, but that was easy too.

SOUTH

Titans 13-3 (6-10)
*Colts 12-4 (12-4)
Texans 8-8 (7-9)
Jaguars 5-11 (11-5)

TOTAL: 38-26 (36-28)

GRADE: C-. The Colts I nailed, but again, model organization, and they are good every year (though it actually didn't start out looking that way, with the slow start and Manning's knee surgeries.) I never saw the Titans coming, and missed big on the Jags - then again, mostly everyone else did too. And again I saved a little face by forecasting overall division strength.

WEST

Chargers 8-8 (10-6)
Broncos 8-8 (7-9)
Raiders 5-11 (7-9)
Chiefs 2-14 (6-10)
TOTAL: 23-41 (30-34)

GRADE: C. I don't take much solace in correctly predicting the finishing order of all these scrub teams. I didn't totally whiff by a mile, but didn't see anything particularly special either. This division doesn't deserve any more of my time than it already got, so let's move to the NFC now...

NFC

EAST

Giants 12-4 (10-6)
*Eagles 9-6-1 (10-6)
Cowboys 9-7 (11-5)
Redskins 8-8 (7-9)

TOTAL: 38-25-1 (38-26)

GRADE: A+. Ding ding ding ding! I hit the Giants and Eagles going to the playoffs, the overall division record within 1/2 game, and every team's record within 2 games. The only thing I missed was the Cowboys not going to the playoffs...but hey, I'm glad to be wrong about that.

NORTH

Vikings 10-6 (10-6)
Bears 9-7 (5-11)
Packers 6-10 (10-6)
Lions 0-16 (8-8)

TOTAL: 25-39 (33-31)

GRADE: D. Good on the Vikings, off on everyone else. Special attention goes to the Lions going 0-16, as I may not get the chance to mention it elsewhere. How awesome is that?

SOUTH

Panthers 12-4 (10-6)
*Falcons 11-5 (4-12)
Buccaneers 9-7 (9-7)
Saints 8-8 (9-7)

TOTAL: 40-24 (32-32)

GRADE: B-. Got the division winner, and very close on 3 of the 4 teams overall. But what a season for the Falcons. Matt Ryan gives hope to any future team hoping to draft a QB high in the first round, but not feel like they are relegated to "rebuilding" for 2 or 3 years with a bad record. (So did Joe Flacco in Baltimore for that matter.)

WEST

Cardinals 9-7 (6-10)
49ers 7-9 (3-13)
Seahawks 4-12 (6-10)
Rams 2-14 (5-11)

TOTAL: 22-42 (20-44)

GRADE: Incomplete. Everything I said about the AFC West not deserving my attention applies even more to this group. What a terrible, worthless bunch of teams. And if not for one particular team quitting in December and losing to both the 49ers and Seahawks, this division would have matched my predicted total record. But, I correctly identified this as the worst division ever, and gave the Cardinals a tie for 1st place, so there you go.

PLAYOFFS!???

AFC: 3 of 6 teams correct - Steelers, Colts, Chargers.
NFC: 4 of 6 teams correct - Giants, Eagles, Vikings, Panthers (and a bonus 1/2 point for the Cardinals).

Preseason Super Bowl Prediction of Giants vs. Colts

Alive and well...

31 other GMs can't be wrong

We've seen several interesting examples this season of players that no one else wanted, signing on for one last chance with the one team who thought they still had something left. So far, Ty Law is looking to be a non-factor with the Jets. Shaun Alexander hung on for just weeks with the Redskins. And Richie Sexson spent about a month with the Yankees. All were examples of low-risk, scrap heap pickups of guys appeared to be nearing the end...who, as it turns out, really are near the end. I guess if nothing else, it's a lesson that often the masses are correct. Sure, sometimes you're the only one who believes in something, and you turn out to be right. But the majority of the time, you can just save yourself the effort, and take cues from others.

Coming up next week: My long awaited (by no one) NFL Season in Review.

Does anybody remember laughter?

I would just like to bring more attention to the craziness that has ensued on my friend Mike's blog the past couple days over this post:

http://mikekenny.blogspot.com/2008/07/classic-card-of-week_8747.html

Yes, a photo of me is included, but it's not really about me. First and foremost, I want you to read Mike's post on this SI For Kids card featuring a speed skater, and enjoy it on its own merits. I dare you not to laugh, and I dare you to try to take it literally or in a totally serious/factual light.

Now read the comments at the bottom made by "Brian Krans," and the second "Anonymous."

I know it's an extremely small sample size, and as Mike says, they may even be the same person...but after seeing these comments I have truly begun to question the ability of people (or at least a percentage of people) in America in the year 2008 to laugh, or even to grasp the concept of humor when done by others.

I am still leaving open a slight possibility that these people were themselves trying to be sarcastic or satirical, or trying to bait us in some way. But, if I may quote another great blog, the now defunct FJM: If this is bait...I've taken it, and it's delicious.

Speaking of voting people in for things...

Stephon Marbury for NBA All-Star! How awesome would it be to vote him into the starting lineup of the 2009 all-star game, while he sits on the bench in a suit making $20 million during a standoff with the Knicks that again reminds of George Costanza's showdown with Play Now.

You can vote on NBA.com once every 24 hours. Come on folks, together we can make a difference. You do have to sign up for a login and password, but it doesn't take very long, and the possible reward is so much sweeter.

Steph '09: Yes We Can! Yes We Can!

Mussina: Lacking in championships, but...

Mike Mussina retired today. I'm going to jump way ahead here and say he should be in the Hall of Fame someday. He never won a championship, and doesn't have 300 wins, two things that will hurt him in the "shortcut" department, but he's still worthy. I don't like to cherry-pick arguments, but I'll compare him to a pitcher who is generally cited as the next pitcher who should be inducted, Jack Morris. Neither were truly dominant for an extended period of time, or won a Cy Young. But Mussina is better than Morris any way you slice it. Morris, the winningest pitcher of the 80s, had a 254-186 record in 18 seasons. Mussina was 270-153, in 18 seasons. 61 percentage points higher, and 16 more wins (sure, Mussina had the Yankee offense behind him for 8 of these seasons, but Morris played for several championship teams.) And obviously wins are overrated for pitchers, but that's what the voters judge by. So, I have to speak their language. You know, "When in Rome..."

Now, in career ERAs, I see as the biggest difference. Morris: 3.90. League average ERA during his career: 4.08. That's a career ERA+ of 105. In other words, Morris was barely better than the league average pitcher for his career. Mussina's career ERA: 3.68. League average ERA: 4.51. ERA+: 123. I'd even go back now and say that Morris played for better teams than Mussina, evident in Morris's .577 winning percentage with a barely above league-average ERA. Of course you can point to the postseason for Morris. He has the 1991 World Series, Game 7, the 10 scoreless innings. That is a great performance in a big spot, that I can't take away. But to put it inperspective, it was one game. His career postseason stats, evenincluding this game, are pedestrian. 3.80 ERA. And his signature game is balanced out by his going 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in thefollowing season's World Series with Toronto. The Jays won in spite of him! Again, Mussina is ringless, but it's no fault of his own. Career postseason ERA: 3.42. And how about his own signature postseason game? 2003 ALCS game 7, when he came in against Boston with the bases loaded and no one out (after that worm Clemens left in the 4th) and threw 3 scoreless innings, keeping the Yanks in the game, and we know what happened from there (thanks Aaron Boone). The next series, against the Marlins, he allowed 1 run in his only start of the series, beating Josh Beckett in game 3. Then in 2004, he left game 5 of the ALCS after 6 innings with a 4-2 lead before the bullpen lost it. Moose's postseason resume is definitely there. Plus, he closed out his career with a 20-win season, another overrated benchmark that sportswriters love.

Anyway, Mike Mussina was really good, and the Yankees have a tough job ahead in replacing him. I'm sure they'll be frugal and responsible about it, and not throw a bunch of money at someone who's not that good...

Box score incorrect?

I just want to make sure this is accurate...Brett Favre is 10-13, for 136 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs, as the Jets lead the Patriots 24-6 midway through the 2nd quarter. Since I don't get the NFL Network along with 90%* of the national television viewing audience, I have no way of verifying the authenticity of this information.

24-6 is a pretty nice beating so far, especially because this game is for the lead in the AFC East, the toughest division in the conference. Although I did say before the season that the Patriots would take a measurable step backwards this year, due to no longer being allowed to cheat.**

*Frustrated estimate; may not be accurate.
**Yes I just linked to myself.

Because it's not like he needs to spend more time focusing on the Jets' playbook...

From Fox's Jay Glazier: Brett Favre allegedly talked on the phone for 60 to 90 minutes to Lions' coaches, giving them tips about how to stop the Packers' offense.

This jealous ex-lover thing is going a little too far. Hey, Brett...you play for the Jets now. Try learning their playbook before wasting a lot of time talking about that of the Packers.

Welcome to Giantland!

What a day it's been! I was just informed that my papers went through. I'm thrilled about my new home! That's right, my application for political asylum in New York Giants fanhood was accepted. It is awesome to be on board.

And to think, this happens mere hours after the New York Jets, my old professional football home (a very abusive home at that), suffered their most embarassing loss in franchise history. I wouldn't say it was the worst game purely in terms of poor play, as approximately 10 of the top 10 in that category are from the Rich Kotite years...but in terms of expectations, talent assembled pre-gunslinger (Pace, Jenkins, etc.), talent that was already in place, and the fact that they were playing against a team in complete disarray, and an owner who holds bizarre press conferences during which he reads letters telling his ex-coach to "get over it"...I'd say that yesterday was the most humiliating loss the franchise has ever had.
For those not familiar with the concept of football political asylum, a fan is allowed to adopt allegiance to a non-conference, geographically close team, if the conditions with his former team become so bad that the fan could no longer rationally support them. It's just science, people. Now, the fan does reserve the right to return to his former team, but only when those conditions measurably improve. With the Jets, for instance, I assume this time will not come until a change at quarterback is made.

I think when all is said and done, the 2008 Jets will be proof that you can't play "fantasy football" with an NFL roster. As I mentioned earlier, the team was assembled in the offseason with key components to help them win. The pieces all fit. In August, things looked promising for the Jets. They appeared poised for a good season with Chad Pennington and an offensive line, running game, and receivers who could work with his strengths and weaknesses. Then, the Jets tried to plug in a quarterback who was over the hill, terribly mistake-prone, and didn't really want to be there. I knew this was how it was going to go, but to my credit as the patient, level-headed fan I am, I gave the experiment a fair chance. I still think the Jets will make the playoffs, and I stick to that prediction...but it's clear their quarterback will never give them the two decent performances in a row necessary to defeat two very good teams in the postseason.

What's in a name?

It has occurred to me after looking at many of the comments on my blog posts, that it often appears I have an alter-ego that I use to make fun of myself. I have a friend named Bill, and when he posts, it shows up as "bill." This becomes even more confusing when I post a comment of my own, after my friend Bill has posted a comment. It shows up the same way for me also: "bill." I have looked for a way to change my display name when I post comments on my own blog, and I can't find it. I can't even capitalize the letter B and make it look like my grammar is superior to Bill's, and therefore appear to be a superior human being.

So, to clarify, I don't have a split personality that I use to point out the sillyness of my posts and rip on my other personality.

...Or do I?

Oughts, and the Roaring Twenties

I was thinking today about how fast 2008 is flying by, and how it is almost over. And when 2008 is over it will also mean we have only one year remaining of saying "ought" instead of "o" when referring to the third of the four digits in the year. It seems like only yesterday that my friends Bill, Mike, and I, were talking about how great it was going to be to say "Twenty ought-one" when everyone else says "twenty-oh-one," or "two-thousand-one." It's been a great decade, but ought-nine is all we have left. Once 2010 hits, I'm afraid there is nothing cool to call the year. "Twenty-ten?" "Two-thousand-ten?" Or if you're into the whole brevity thing, just "Ten?" Lame.

And speaking of years, if I can go forward even further, when baseball fans of my generation are really old I think there is potential for some confusing conversations. Baseball has a much longer history than its superior, football...and its inferior, basketball. As a result, it will be the first sport where you can talk about history and have to clarify which century you are referring to. I can see the following conversation taking place in say, the year 2043, when I am 62 years old (and my current Arizona Driver's License still has not yet expired):

Fan 1: "What a great offense the Mariners have. It reminds me of the world champion '27 Yankees."
Fan 2: "Ah yes, the 1927 Yankees of Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig."

Fan 1: "No dummy, I was referring to the 2027 Yankees of Derek Jeter Jr.* and {generate random baseball name that does not yet exist here.}"

*Yes, I know that even if Derek Jeter Jr. was born today, he would only be 19 years old in 2027. Whatever, just go with it.

And the kaleidoscope changes again

Just when we think we have the NFL figured out...well actually we didn't think that at any point. But, no league can confuse us week-to-week like the NFL. The Cowboys lose to Cardinals, and the Redskins lose to the (no longer) winless Rams. The only team that looks to be a sure thing this season is the Giants, and I'm certain they'll have at least one or two bad games before the regular season is over. I mean, no team goes 16-0 in a season without cheating.

One thing is looking like a lock though. Both the Cardinals and Patriots this season decided to stay on the opposite coast for a week in between road games. For the Cardinals, they played the Redskins, stayed east, then played the Jets. The Patriots played the 49ers, stayed out west for a week, then faced the Chargers. Each team was crushed in that 2nd game. I don't think we'll be seeing any teams trying that strategy again. It's not like the old days when teams had to ride on trains for days to travel to these places. Inconveniencing your team for a week, to save a couple 4-hour flights? I just don't understand it.

Cardinals-Jets prediction

In the first 3 weeks of the NFL season, the following happened...

Jets beat Dolphins, 20-14
Patriots beat Jets, 19-10
Cardinals beat Dolphins, 31-10
Dolphins beat Patriots, 38-13

By deductive logic, the Cardinals will beat the Jets on Sunday by a score of 165-2.

Also, the Jets will have failed to pay attention to this, as despite warning, they allow the Cardinals to get their running game untracked behind Edgerrin James, (rather than keeping it tracked and in front of James) and allow the Cardinals to surprise the Jets with their special teams. Curse you, Bob McManahan, and curse your foresight! I also need to give Cards' homer McManahan credit when he said this...

Meanwhile, the Jets are having their own issues at quarterback.

This was written before the Jets acquired Favre. Eerie, no?

How about a trade, Miami?

I've been able to watch all 3 games the Jets have played so far this season, and let me just say this...I really miss Chad Pennington. It's funny how after all that money the Jets spent over the summer to improve the offensive line, defensive line, and linebackers...they then decided to downgrade at the quarterback position. But, I can't say I didn't see this coming. Gunslinger!

Pennant race!

What an exciting race between the Dodgers and Diamondbacks for the NL West title! If these teams were in the AL East, they would be in 5th and 6th place, respectively. But whatever, Joe Torre is a genius. The playoffs are the playoffs. (And it is what it is.)

Because a little cross promotion never hurt anybody...

Okay, so here's a link to another blog, on which I link to a funny name of an NY Times writer. 3 degrees of separation to Charles M. Blow is a lot, but I think it's worth the laugh, especially considering the man's field of expertise.

And thanks for posting my letter Czabe...I knew you'd appreciate it!

2008 NFL Preview

After spending much of the offseason making fun of Sports Illustrated for picking the Giants to finish last in the NFC East in 2007, I realized, in a rare moment of humility that predicting an NFL season might be more difficult than it looks. So this year, for the first time, I will predict the NFL season, with full records and playoff results. Plus this gives all of you a chance to make fun of me.

No, I did not just copy this off of Madden NFL 2009 (because I don't have it). No, I didn't just copy this off of Tecmo Super Bowl. And yes, I made sure all the regular season records add up to 256 wins and 256 losses. In fact, I also include division records on the whole as I feel it's important to predict the overall strength of a division, as these teams will be playing each other the most, and therefore will show how tough their level of competition is.

Without further delay, here we go:

AFC

EAST

Patriots 11-5
Jets 10-6*
Bills 8-8
Dolphins 7-9

TOTAL: 36-28
The Patriots, no longer able to cheat, lose 5 more regular season games than last year...but still squeak by for the best record in a much improved division. The Jets were better even before Favre was added (Faneca, Pace, Woody, Gholston, Keller, Jenkins). Pennington is solid for Miami. Marshawn Lynch leads the AFC in rushing, as well as hit-and-runs.

NORTH

Steelers 11-5
Browns 9-7
Bengals 6-10
Ravens 5-11

TOTAL: 31-33
Steelers as always are tough and consistent. Browns offense again lights it up, but they just miss the playoffs due again to a poor defense. Bengals top their own NFL record for arrests. Ravens become the latest team to unretire Vinny Testaverde because they have no QB.

SOUTH

Colts 12-4
Jaguars 11-5*
Texans 7-9
Titans 6-10

TOTAL: 36-28
Colts and Jags battle it out all season, as usual. I was close to picking the Jaguars to win it, but until that happens I can't go against the Colts. Mario Williams dominates for the Texans, making those who instead wanted Reggie Bush or Matt Leinart eat their words even more. Vince Young finishes the year with a QB rating lower than Pamela Anderson's IQ, but is again defended for "having no weapons."

WEST

Chargers 10-6
Raiders 7-9
Broncos 7-9
Chiefs 6-10

TOTAL: 30-34
No one really impresses me here, but the Raiders will be the most improved of the group. I sort of give the division to the Chargers by default, but they will struggle with a hobbled all-pro (and all-chemical) pass rusher Shawn Merriman.

NFC

EAST

Cowboys 11-5
Giants 10-6*
Eagles 10-6*
Redskins 7-9

TOTAL: 38-26
Along with the AFC East and AFC South, I consider this the best division in the league. 3 teams go to the playoffs, and the Redskins are competitive. The Giants sorely miss Strahan and Umenyiora, but Eli Manning picks up where he leaves off and has an MVP caliber season.

NORTH

Vikings 10-6
Packers 10-6
Lions 8-8
Bears 5-11

TOTAL: 33-31
With a full season of good health, Adrian Peterson leads the NFC in rushing and gives the Vikings the edge they need, as they win the division with a tie-breaker over the Packers. Confused Green Bay fans don't know whether to love or hate Aaron Rodgers. The Bears just miss out on signing Vinny, so turn to Doug Flutie to rescue them from the Orton/Grossman carousel.

SOUTH

Panthers 10-6
Saints 9-7
Buccaneers 9-7
Falcons 4-12

TOTAL: 32-32
These teams are all kind of boring so I don't know what to write about them.

WEST

Seahawks 6-10
Cardinals 6-10
Rams 5-11
49ers 3-13

TOTAL: 20-44
Yes, this will be the worst division of all-time. (In any sport - even counting this year's NL West in baseball.) The only reason I give the Seahawks and Cardinals 6 wins, is because they get to play each other, as well as the Rams and 49ers, twice each. Again a division is decided by a tiebreaker, though the NFL is reluctant to let anyone from this division into the postseason.


PLAYOFFS!???

Wild Card Round:
Jets over Patriots (Favre: 5 TDs - gunslinger!)
Jaguars over Chargers
Giants over Seahawks
Eagles over Panthers

Divisional Round:
Colts over Jets (Favre: 5 INTs - gunslinger!)
Jaguars over Steelers
Cowboys over Eagles
Giants over Vikings

Championship Round:
Colts over Jaguars
Giants over Cowboys (Romo: 2 INTs, 3 mishandled FG holds)

Super Bowl:
Colts over Giants (Manning Bowl! Mr. and Mrs. Manning are shown 327 times during the 3 hour game broadcast.)

So there it is, I've got my story straight. And I promise not to change anything when it's week 4 and all of this is obviously wrong.

Another one of my special reminders

As the 2008 NFL season approaches, it's easy to forget the recent past. So I would like to once again point out that last season the Giants won the Super Bowl. Also, the Patriots were caught cheating, and they lost the one Super Bowl they didn't try to cheat in.

Carl Pavano is awesome

Carl Pavano yesterday won his first start for the Yankees in 16 months. Is it time yet to take back everything I said here? All right, maybe it's still a bit early for that. With the hole the Yanks are in, he's going to have to win a lot more games this season to make a difference.

Yes, I just linked to myself above. And yes, I stole the Yes I just linked to myself concept from my friend Mike.

Life imitates Seinfeld, part II

Friend, reader, and 1066 Football 2nd all-time leading receiver Scott raised such a provocative question, that the scenario deserves revisiting: So who/what is the giant ball of oil in this situation?
Well Scott, the giant ball of oil represents the glob of interceptions that Brett Favre will throw this season. Kramer and his intern represent Jets management, as they have dropped the giant ball of oil from high up in the building. And that ball is headed right for an unsuspecting Eric Mangini's head...

"Coles must have ran the wrong route on that play..."

I have to say, I am going to miss Chad Pennington. He didn't have a lot of arm strength, thus his abilities were limited, but the Jets had a couple of great runs with him, and he was a good guy throughout. The team has never had a hotter stretch than they did in the second half of the 2002 season, and in 2004 he led a team that could have gone to the Super Bowl (sandbagged by Doug Brien's missed regulation ending and overtime FGs in Pittsburgh). Sure, he never won a championship, but he was "our guy."

Now, the Jets have traded for a quarterback who isn't "our guy." At least, he's not my guy, buddy. Brett Favre is the opposite of Chad Pennington. He has the arm strength that Pennington does not, but he doesn't make good decisions, and thinks he's bigger than the team. I don't want to sound too much like the police chief in any 1980s cop movie, but he's reckless. The Jets made signings to drastically improve the team last offseason (Faneca, Pace, Woody, Jenkins), and were going to be better no matter what. But now if they do go to the playoffs, I think we'll see the credit go to Favre. If they lose though, we know what's coming...30 interceptions being excused away with "He's a gunslinger," "He's just trying to win," and "{Jets intended receiver} must have ran the wrong route."

The 2008 New York Jets will be quite a circus.

Again, life imitates Seinfeld

This Brett Favre saga is beginning to look more and more like the Seinfeld episode when George worked for "Play Now" and his stand-off with management kept escalating, with each party calling the other's bluff. First, Favre is caught in his lie (Favre's lie being that he was going to stay retired…George's lie being that he was handicapped). Then, the company tries to give away the employee's most precious possession (Packers commit to Rodgers as the starter…Play Now gives away George's private bathroom). I'm surprised the Packers have not changed the locks to the gates to training camp, as Play Now locked George out of his office. I don't know what's next, but I simply say, "Sit back and enjoy the show folks." The more uncomfortable this thing gets for everyone involved, the more fun it will be for the rest of us.

Arizona Republic NFL writer Bob McManaman wears silly-coloured sunglasses

You have to love the locals, and their undying support and jingoism for a football team that does not deserve it.

In this article, Arizona Republic NFL writer Bob McManaman takes a look at the 2008 Arizona Cardinals schedule, and predicts the results, game-by-game. He predicts a 10-win season for the Cardinals, which is funny on many levels. First, the locals do this every year. Second, the Cardinals have not won 10 regular season games since 1976. Third, they are the Cardinals.

Now, I go FJM style. Naturally, my attention was drawn to what McManaman says about the Cards' week 4 visit to the Meadowlands...

"The Cardinals get their running game untracked behind Edgerrin James and they surprise the Jets with some solid special teams play, namely that of return man Steve Breaston. The quarterback position seems a little fuzzy, though. Is that Matt Leinart calling the signals or is it veteran Kurt Warner? We can't tell. Meanwhile, the Jets are having their own issues at quarterback. But the Cardinals improve to 3-1 and people are starting to take notice.

Prediction: Cardinals 31, Jets 17"

I'm not going to tell you this guy is flat out wrong...but for the record, I had marked this game down as an easy win for the Jets when I took my own look at the schedule. Just saying. But let's take a closer look at McManaman's analysis...

The Cardinals get their running game untracked behind Edgerrin James and they surprise the Jets with some solid special teams play.

So prior to week 3, the Cardinals' running game will not be untracked. Until then, clearly, it will be tracked. Also, he scouted the Jets very well, as I happen to know that the Jets never expect solid special teams play from their opponents. I can hear Jets' coach Eric Mangini now..."Solid special teams play? What in the world is going on? I am soooooo totally surprised right now!"

Is that Matt Leinart calling the signals or is it veteran Kurt Warner? We can't tell.

Well, I can't really help you there Bob, but the photo next to your blurb features Jets' punter Ben Graham and Jets' kicker Mike Nugent. Maybe it will be a surprising, solid special team player calling the signals?

But the Cardinals improve to 3-1 and people are starting to take notice.

Is it possible to take notice to a hypothetical situation predicted by a local homer? If so, consider me on notice!

NL West...Uggghhhhh

I already am annoyed at the thought of who will win the National League West division this season. The winner will almost certainly have a below .500 record, because all the teams suck...and it will likely be Arizona or Los Angeles.

If it's Arizona, since I live in Phoenix I'll get to hear from the locals about how great their division-winning, playoff-bound, 78 win team is.

And if it's Los Angeles, I am sure I'll get to hear how great Joe Torre is, and therefore hear another round of "The Yankees made a mistake getting rid of Joe Torre." This is because ESPN hates the Yankees.

I believe a division should be stripped of its playoff berth if no one within that division finishes with a .500 record or better. This isn't just a pipe dream - it could easily be done, in a practical manner. All you do is take away the west's division winning spot, and give a 2nd wild card spot to the East/Central. There would be more incentive for the West teams to get good...and more incentive for the approximately 90-win team in the East or Central who would have missed out on the wild card.

The NL West would lose their playoff spot like every year, but baseball would be better for it.

On racial matters

I noticed something troubling about myself today - a lot of my evalution of NFL players is based on race, and I didn't even know it until I saw a photo of New York Jets' rookie Tight End Dustin Keller.

You see, I never saw Keller play in college. All I saw of him was a highlight package on ESPN the day he was drafted. I couldn't see his face in the highlights. All I saw was a Purdue uniform, and skin a bit on the lighter side. I thought Keller was white. I instantly became critical of this pick. "Great," I thought. "Another stiff at Tight End." Doug Jolley and Kyle Brady came to mind - both are white. Sure, I saw Keller making some nice plays...but you can make any collegiate player look good in a highlight package, especially given a lot of mediocre competition. In the Big Ten's case, you have Indiana and Northwestern. ESPN's hosts tell us how athletic and talented he is. Whatever.

Fast forward to this morning. I saw an article on NJ.com about how Keller has signed his contract, and is ready for camp. The page contains a photo of Keller stretching. What's this I see? He's black. Suddenly I shifted my evaluation of him to a more positive one. I automatically thought of him as more athletic, having more upside, and as simply a better football player than when I thought he was white. Only then did I realize I was guilty of this preconceived notion that white players are not as good. Is there something wrong with me? Or is this simply a product of seeing too many Doug Jolleys and Kyle Bradys come around?

...Or should I just call Jimmy the Greek or Al Campanis and ask them what they think?

Carl Pavano stinks...am I right folks?

I had this fear just hit me (it just comes in waves sometimes, you know), and I wanted to share it. Carl Pavano is in the last year of his contract with the Yankees, and obviously - though you can really never say never* - the Yanks will not re-sign him for 2009. He hasn't pitched for over a year, and may not pitch again in a Yankee uniform. So, with this "out of sight, out of mind" danger, my fear is that Carl Pavano will be able to slowly fade from our memory without getting one last wave of mockery and anger. Please, don't let this happen. Do yourself a favor and appreciate how much Carl Pavano is a bust...before it's too late.

*If the Yankees make the playoffs, which I believe they will, and Carl Pavano comes back in time for the playoffs, and pitches like 36 consecutive scoreless playoff innings helping the Yankees to win the World Series, I will take back everything I said. Better yet, I would probably just erase this post and deny I ever typed it.

We'll miss you, George

George Carlin died Sunday. Anything I could think of adding right now to try to sum up his awesomeness just would seem trite, so I will leave it at this: He was my favorite comedian ever, there will never be another like him, and a countless number of his sayings and jokes have permeated my own vocabulary. 71 seems too young, but I am thankful for all the laughs he left for us to enjoy.

Hey, Zeke wants to know when you Yankee bastards are comin' to Houston!

I don't quite know how the cycle of Major League Baseball's interleague play schedule is set up, regarding how often opposite-leagued, non-geographical rival franchises visit each other. Every 3 years? 6 years? Regardless, I do know that this is a pretty special time, that we really shouldn't overlook. For the first time ever, in a 3-game series Friday through Sunday, the Yankees visit the Astros - making this the first time that we can quote this episode of Seinfeld and have a feeling of closure to the topic in question. (I couldn't find the exact clip I was looking for, but I did find this Youtube clip from the episode.)

And yet, I would like to know if Wilhelm is still with the Yankee organization, and if those bastards in Houston are still running things.

They're all ringers, Nick

I'm definitely not the first one to say this, but I feel like the more people that say this, the better. Besides, I am not one to let anything slide when it comes to the NBA, one of the more disingenuous leagues you'll find.

So, I'll post this link, as Czabe has done it again when it comes to exposing sports tomfoolery in a logical, "everyman's" manner. (I swear it's not so much out of laziness, but rather, not being able to say it any better myself.)

Basically, ringers were traded to two marquee but struggling franchises, in deals that were so uneven they would have been vetoed if the NBA was a fantasy league. And the two GMs who were ripped off in the deals, happened to have hooked up their old teams. Oh well. I've long since given up on the credibility of this league.

Spygate continues to unfold

This thing just keeps getting bigger, and more amazing. And I will do my part not to let it get away. I'll start with this, from the Wisconsin State Journal. From the "hindsight is 20/20" department, here is the article's money shot: a quote from Packers' DB Al Harris, after the Pats beat the Pack 35-0 in in Green Bay, in 2006:

"It almost looked like they knew what we were doing, you know what I mean? They ran plays designed for us. They ran plays and made us check out some things. I don't know who calls their plays. (Belichick) is pretty good. Honestly. He's pretty good. There were things that they were doing that (got receivers open)."

Wow. Al, if only you knew. Though maybe you did have some idea. Steelers' receiver Hines Ward certainly did, after the 2002 AFC Championship game, according to this quote from a 2007 USA Today article:

"Oh, they knew. They were calling our stuff out. They knew, especially that first championship game here at Heinz Field. They knew a lot of our calls. There's no question some of their players were calling out some of our stuff."

Now, to the main monkey business - a compelling piece in today's New York Times, featuring an interview with Matt Walsh on the inner workings of the videotaping scheme. To me, here is the meat of the article:

The first time Walsh filmed an opponent’s signals was against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2000 preseason — Belichick’s first as the Patriots’ coach.

The Patriots then opened the regular season against the Buccaneers. Walsh said this was the first time he had seen quarterback Drew Bledsoe operate a no-huddle offense when not in a two-minute or hurry-up situation.

In the week after the game, Walsh said he asked a quarterback — again, he declined to name whom — how helpful the signals were. Walsh said the quarterback told him “probably about 75 percent of the time, Tampa Bay ran the defense we thought they were going to run — if not more.”

I can't imagine how much of an advantage that was! Well, Al Harris, Hines Ward, or anyone else who played the Patriots between 2000-2007 might. To me, it would be like sneaking a peak at my brother's controller and seeing 75% of the plays he chose in Tecmo Super Bowl. Something like that. Anyway...also in the article, there's this:

Belichick and Walsh never discussed the taping of opponents’ signals. That fell to Ernie Adams, Belichick’s right-hand man and mysterious assistant.

My reaction? Somebody should have a talk with this Ernie Adams.

Sports cliches not just lip service

Sports-related cliches: You hear them all the time, and dismiss them as worthless. But there is a reason athletes say them. They matter. Who would know better than the athletes themselves? It seems to me we should start taking their word for it, you know? Plus, these guys are well-educated and polite, so it's not like they would say something if it wasn't meaningful, or was misleading. So, let's look at a few, and examine why they are true...

We're just going to go out there and give 110%.

Think this one's unquantifiable? Not this time. In the 1988 World Series, Dennis Eckersely went to the mound, determined to only give 103% while facing Kirk Gibson. We all know what happened next.

Let the chips fall where they may.

This one seems stupid and nonsensical, right? Wrong. In fact, I personally overheard this conversation prior to game 7 of the 1994 NBA finals:
Anthony Mason: "All right, let's just play hard and let the chips fall where they may."
John Starks: "F*ck that, man. I'm tired of just letting the chips fall where they may. Not only will I question where the chips may fall, but I am going to do everything in my power to alter these locations."
The result? Starks goes 2-18 from the field, the Knicks lose..and chips of the Knicks' title hopes were strewn about.

We have to play hard, night in and night out.

Surely this statement is meaningless, isn't it? Not a chance. It's as crucial as anything in sports, to play hard, both night in, and night out. Doing just one, isn't good enough. Playing hard just night in, but mailing it in night out, is not going to get it done. Likewise, just hanging out night in, but going all-out night out, well that's simply too little, too late. I could try to provide an example of a big sports moment when someone did not play hard both night in and night out, and it led to their demise...but I tried pretty hard in the first portion of this blog entry, so I don't see why I should try hard at the end.

Triple Crown? In other news, Jimmy crack corn...

With the Kentucky Derby having taken place this past weekend, we were inundated with what I feel is another dumb sports cliche that people don't really think about. To me, it's just like the "Home runs and steroids saved baseball" argument - people hear others say it, so they say it too, and it becomes a generally accepted part of our collective sports consciousness. But it's never really examined.

This notion that "Everyone wants to see a triple crown winner," and that "People would care about horse racing if a horse won the triple crown." Really? Are you sure? The thought that I, as the sports layperson, would instantly become a horse racing fan because the same horse wins 3 races in a row, is woefully flawed. I don't care if one horse wins 3 consecutive races, just like I don't care if the same dude wins 3 consecutive Superbike races.

If you like horse racing, hey, that's awesome, and good for you. I'm sure seeing dominance in your sport is pretty cool for you, just like dynasties are pretty cool in other sports. (Real dyansties, of course - not when they're just cheaters.) But if you like horse racing, you'd probably still like it either way. Otherwise, you're probably not a "true" horse racing fan to begin with.

And on a much broader note, I am tired of being told what to care about in sports. I didn't care about Tiger Woods when he burst into the golf scene sometime in the late 1990s, I don't care now, and I never will.

NFL Draft this weekend

The NFL draft is upon us once again. The Jets - beloved in the way you love how sports are 1% glory and 99% kicks to the groin - hold the 6th pick. Normally, a fan would be pretty excited about the possibilities of drafting that high. But the Jets are no normal organization. While they have been competitive in the last decade - in fact, very good most years between 1998 and 2006 - the Jets have certainly made their share of historically bad draft picks.

I don't want to get too in-depth about what players are available, and which ones they should pick...but I do think their biggest need is a premiere, pass-rushing defensive lineman. That is, of course, unless the Troll from Pigskin Footbrawl is still on the board. Pretty unlikely though; the Troll is a perfect fit for the Raiders at #4.

Hey Peter...watch your cornhole, man.

Growing up in central New Jersey, a great part of my childhood was playing the Bean Bag Game with my family. The object was to toss your round bean bags, into a hole in a wooden board on the other side. Sort of like horseshoes, but way more awesome. And yes, that's the official name: The Bean Bag Game. So, you can imagine my confusion when I saw this.

"Cornhole." Really? Who knew our beloved game had such a vulgar name? I think of something a little different when I hear about a couple of dudes playing corn hole with each other. But that's just me. And it's not just that one site either - Wikipedia has it too, and we all know Wikipedia can never be wrong.

Oh well. To me, this is just more proof that there is right, and there is wrong. Unlike the classic show Beyond Belief: Fact or Fiction, truth and falsehood are not just different shades of grey (or created by the hallucinations of "researcher" Robert Trailins). I will not allow cultural relativism into my leisure sports.

And the bags are round, not square. The hole is round, why would the bags be square? Any 4 year old playing with pegs knows that. And it's 6 bean bags in a set, not 4. Sheesh.

This...is Bill Beeeaaaalichick

Great article by Steve Czaban today on OnMilwaukee.com about the "spygate" scandal, and how in spite of the NFL's wishes, all signs point to a brewing storm - thanks to the pending testimony of Matt Walsh. It sure is taking a while to develop, but Czabe believes it's because Walsh really has something, thus needs to make sure he has adequate protection before he reveals all the goods. I just can't wait for this to happen.

It's like waiting for Christmas, even though you don't know when Chrismas is going to be. But when it does finally come around...it's going to be a pretty darn good Christmas.

Red Sox fans take this curse thing a little too seriously

I don't understand this. How would burying a David Ortiz jersey under the new Yankee Stadium, curse the Yankees? Or, was the guy hoping to further un-curse the Red Sox? Clearly he knows his team already broke their curse, in the horrible, horrible October of 2004. Are there varying degrees of curses, or is something either cursed, or not cursed? I think someone should write a definitive book or movie about curses to settle this whole thing once and for all. Until then, I'll just start here, since it contains Shannon Elizabeth. Though I don't know if it will help with the whole baseball thing.

WNBA Live 2008

Not a whole lot of substance to this post, at least not contributed by me. But I wanted to make sure as many people as possible see this. A brilliant (and terribly mean) idea, executed to perfection.

Go crazy folks...go crazy.

Fall Seven Times, Get Up..Eight?

I just realized that this saying/slogan makes no sense. Unless you somehow get up in one instance in which you did not fall down, or maybe count getting out of bed as one of the times you got up, it is impossible to fall seven times and get up eight.

Fall, get up, fall, get up, fall, get up, fall, get up, fall, get up, fall, get up, fall, get up. Seven of each. It should be, "Fall seven times, get up seven."

Just thought I'd point that out. Take that, Nike!

PS: It actually is physically possible to "just do it."

The week of the unsolicited bracket

The NCAA tournament field was announced yesterday. I will admit that I did not pay much attention to college basketball this year. But even if this was more like past years when I did, I still don't need to see your bracket. Especially if you work with me. So please, unless I ask to see it, keep it to yourself.

With that said, Davidson is going all the way...

Think the Steroid Era "saved baseball?" Think again...

Today I plan on arguing against a long accepted premise that until now, I simply could not form a solid enough argument against. I am going to argue against steroids. I know, "way to go out on a limb." It's not quite that simple though - I am going to argue that steroids did not "save baseball" like the vast majority of commentators assume. Rather, I feel this was the lazy conclusion and does not consider all factors.

10 years ago, the home run boom led by Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa, was said to save baseball, by bringing the fans back after the 1994 strike. The way it's told, you'd think that it if wasn't for Mac and Sammy, baseball would now be played in empty stadiums everywhere, on the verge of extinction - or perhaps already extinct. But let's take a look back at 1998. Ken Griffey Jr. also hit 56 home runs that year, and for much of the season, he too was on pace to break Roger Maris's record of 61. Are we to assume that Griffey by himself chasing Maris, would not bring any extra attention to baseball? In 1998, Ken Griffey Jr. had the sweetest swing in the game, and before injuries slowed him down, he played center field with great range and grace. In my opinion, he was more likable and embraceable than McGwire and Sosa could ever be. (Even then I hated Sosa - what was the deal with that stupid home run hop of his anyway? Had he played during a different era, there would have been pitchers that would have put a stop to that type of showboating pretty quick, with the next fastball landing squarely in Sosa's back - like this guy. Or this guy.)

But let's put aside home runs altogether, since steroids or not, the long ball (and not the 'roids themselves) was allegedly the real draw. That year the Yankees, perhaps the best team ever, were working on the 2nd championship of a remarkable run during which they would win 4 titles in 5 years. They would win a record 125 games including the postseason. Incidentally, would you like to know who led the 1998 Yankees in home runs? That would be Tino Martinez - with 28. Bernie Williams was second with 26. Boy, with such a lack of home run power, it's amazing I even cared about them at all, eh?

Also in 1998, Cal Ripken Jr. continued his consecutive games played record. Truth be told, he brought more fans back to baseball long before 1998 anyway. The game he broke Lou Gehrig's record with consecutive game #2,131, on September 6, 1995, still ranks as one of the ESPN's most watched baseball games (that's according to Wikipedia - so it might be true).

Yet, we have this notion that home runs are all people cared about. I can't call it a romantic notion, because now we know the damage steroids have done to the credibility of baseball. So why do people cling so tightly to this idea? I can't figure it out. It seems like some ploy by ESPN, but the motive to do so just isn't there. But, for those who still believe it, can't we try a little revisionist history? It's no different than "That girl at the bar was ugly anyway..." Can't we try a little sour grapes? Especially in this case, where the excuse is actually true!

Looking back, who cares if Luis Gonzalez hit 57 homers in 2001? (He never hit over 31 in any other season - I'm just sayin'...) Had he only hit 31 that season, would Diamondbacks fans have said, "You know, Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling are dominating like we've never seen before, and are leading us to the World Series. But we don't see enough home runs. Let's watch Arena Football instead."

Wait a minute, you say - So it's not all about home runs, and more of them? How did baseball ever survive without cartoonish offensive numbers? For 100 years, the Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, and Mike Schmidt offensive numbers just weren't enough? We needed McGwire and Sosa to come along?

They'll have us believe that while the fans only care about gawdy home run numbers, now that the truth about steroids are out there, the fans really don't care about steroids. Well this one does. And always will. Join me, won't you?

Welcome In!

Hi, I'm Bill, and welcome to my new blog. Some of you already know me. In fact, I will assume that all of you already know me. Who would want to read a blog that did not exist before now, of a person they didn't know? Certainly not me.

So why do I have a blog anyway? Well, for one thing it beats posting pictures of Yassir Arafat on my friends' myspace pages. Granted, not by much.

I do not quite yet know what kinds of stuff I'll be putting on here on a regular basis. But make no mistake, every blog needs a theme. A blog without a theme, is like a wrestler without a personality. Without a kind of gimmick, I'll quickly become boring, and be relegated to the position of jobber for the entirety of my blogging career - just putting other bloggers "over," with no glory for myself. Who would want that? Again, certainly not me. So I need a "bread and butter." I can't just go into this half-assed. No sir, I will be using my whole ass.

I could be like my friend Mike, who writes a weekly column for the Peoria Times and Glendale Star, and makes fun of old sports cards (and who encouraged me to start this blog - so blame him, folks). I could be like the guys at FireJoeMorgan.com, and critique/shred sports articles using logic and statistics. Or, I could be like nationally syndicated sports talk show host Steve Czaban, and simply give my perspective on current events in sports. One thing I'm sure about, is that this blog will mostly be about sports. I might not know enough about sports to blog about them consistently...but I definitely don't know enough about non-sports. So sports it will be. Sports...and fantasy sports.

For instance, did you know Caron Butler and Gerald Wallace are both set to return this week? This is huge for my team, because the playoffs take place over a two-week period in late March. After that, I couldn't care less about the NBA. Until the next fantasy draft.

Other things you should know about me, is that I love Curtis Martin and Mariano Rivera as much as it is humanly possibly for one heterosexual man to love others he has never met...and Madden 2008 is the greatest game ever. Even better than Donkey Kong. Oh, and I play a little touch football with my friends on weekends, which is most often the highlight of my week.

That should just about do it as far as introductions go. Next time, I promise to have something of more substance.