Super Bowl Prediction

In the week and a half or so since the Championship round, I was feeling pretty nervous about this game. But I’m finally ready to take a stand. Give me the Steelers. And if you’re a point spread gambler…if I have to lay the 7 points, I’ll do it. Also, take the “over.”

Last week, I compared the pregame scenario of this Super Bowl XLIII, to that of Super Bowl XIV. A 9-7 team that got hot at the right time, with an ex-Steelers coordinator on their staff, facing a dominant Steelers team, in a game that was closer than it looked on paper. However, I see this game playing out more like Super Bowl XIX.

In Super Bowl XIX, the Miami Dolphins faced the San Francisco 49ers. Miami started the game well, but after a while, the one-dimensional Dolphins were exposed, and the well-balanced 49ers took full command of the game. The final score: 49ers 38, Dolphins 16. At one point late in the game, 49ers offensive lineman Jesse Sapolu turned to a sideline camera and said something like, “They came here to see an offense…and the wrong one showed up.” I see the Steelers’ offense showing more firepower than they are given credit for, and the Steelers’ defense forcing Kurt Warner into several costly mistakes.

Last year, I picked the Patriots, and hoped I'd be wrong. This year, I pick the Steelers, and hope I'll be right. My pick for this one will be the same score of Super Bowl XIX, plus an extra TD for Arizona to account for Larry Fitzgerald’s awesomeness. Final score: Steelers 38, Cardinals 23.

(Plus Czabe picks the Steelers, so that makes me feel better. Though he compares this one more to Super Bowl XXXV, Giants vs. Ravens.)

"Nothing Hurts Quite Like The One You Shoulda Had"

Good brief article today by Steve Czaban on why the Steelers had better not lose on Sunday.

Because I'm a sucker for lists

Fox Sports has the top 10 best and worst Super Bowl teams of all time. It's fun to see how their lists would compare to yours, and to take a trip down memory lane in the process. And it's interesting to try to figure out what criteria you should judge on, especially with lists like these. Do you rank by the team's overall season performance? Whether they played above or below their heads in the game? The level of the opponent they faced?

I think the "best" list doesn't have nearly the number of Steelers teams it could. Just one, the 1978 team, at #7. On the worst list, the only real surprise was the 1995 Steelers at #10. Several Vikings teams, or the recent Seahwaks or Bears, would have made a fine choice, considering what they did in the years surrounding their Super Bowl run, coupled with how they played in the Super Bowl. However, my friend Bill will be happy to see two Broncos teams on the worst list - though I actually think it's the wrong two.

The opposite of FJM-ing: Mike Freeman

CBS News's Mike Freeman had the courage to write this truth today. Insightful, bold, and since he just so happens to agree with me, brilliant. If you agree with him too, I encourage you to write Mike some positive feedback, as he is no doubt being bombarded with plenty of hate mail from bandwagon Cardinals fans.

That, or you can just go with the empty, vague, unquestioned cliche of "What a great story," as was done with the Tampa Bay Rays making the World Series. You can probably tell that I am annoyed by underdogs winning things, and that goes against probably 80-90% of mankind's approach to sports. I have tried to examine myself in the past few weeks and discover why this is so, and I think I am finally able to articulate it. I feel cheated when the team that I deemed was the better team coming in, doesn't come away victorious. Not cheated as in, "That team must have cheated to win," but cheated in the sense of being gypped, or deprived. I know, why bother playing the games if the underdogs can't win. But if I feel an outcome is a fluke, I tend to be disappointed. Yes, I root for the Yankees. I also root for Microsoft. And America. And yes, the Giants were the underdog in Super Bowl XLII. But they truly were better than the Patriots, evident in their physical domination of the more finesse-built Patriots at the line of scrimmage. That was no fluke. Tyree's catch? Also no fluke - only the greatest play in the history of organized team sports. (See, I have it all covered.)

The only thing I disagree with in Mike Freeman's column is that this Super Bowl's ratings will be sigificantly lower because the Cardinals are in. I think it will draw good viewing numbers, because A) The lack of Cardinals fans nationally will be more than compensated for by the abundance of Steelers fans nationally (Pittsburgh is the REAL America's Team; nice try with your 1970s marketing ploy, Cowboys)...and B) People watch the Super Bowl no matter what teams are playing. The NFL is not like the NBA or Major League Baseball - it just isn't affected as much by what cities/teams are involved.

Super Bowl Preview continued: A Contrast in Fanhood

I just this morning finished watching the tape of the Steelers-Ravens AFC Championship matchup, having been out and about at times during the game. I have always known Steelers fans to be the best of all NFL fan bases. This was only confirmed when an injured Willis McGahee was being brought into the tunnel, amongst Steelers' faithful, and the CBS microphones were on. Usually this would be a nervous moment for any TV network, as who knows what any one random fan will yell. But everything I could make out being yelled by Steelers fans at that moment, were things like "Good luck buddy," and "Get well." Who knows what a random Raiders fan, Eagles fan, Browns fan, or Cardinals fan, would have yelled at that moment.

Speaking of Cardinals fans, we have this tidbit of news from this morning. Classy! Who says the locals couldn't sink any lower than during the 2007 NLCS, when hundreds of Diamondback fans threw garbage onto the field to protest a questionable umpire call while their team was being beaten by a superior Rockies team? I like how the guy on the right of the two mugshot photos, was allowed to keep his Cardinals hat on for his big moment. Sweet goatee too. The year 1999 called, it wants its beard style back. (Also, the Jerk Store called...)

Super Early Super Bowl XLIII Preview

To start with two observations...I know we often fall victim to the Error of Recency, but I believe Larry Fitzgerald is the best wide receiver ever. He is faster, stronger, and taller than Jerry Rice, and has just as good hands as Rice had. And I never saw Rice fight for as many "50/50" balls the way Fitzgerald can. Now, I'm willing to be convinced otherwise, as I realize I never saw Rice in his early years when he was at his most athletic, and physically dominant. But either way, before touting Kurt Warner for MVP due to his gawdy fantasy stats, just realize that any starting NFL QB (except probably Brett Favre) could be made to look pretty darn good if they were throwing to Fitzgerald. Heck, I think I could throw to him.

Also, I feel the Eagles' defense turned in the worst NFC championship performance ever. Kurt Warner was so, so comfortable in the pocket. Although both the Cardinals and Eagles won only 9 games in the 2008 regular season, I considered the Eagles the better team, and therefore have no choice but to call this another Eagles' choke. True, the Eagles got burned by some bad calls, but it shouldn't have come to that. I have a couple of friends who are Eagles fans and I genuinely feel bad for them. But hey, at least they have the Phillies, that should take the sting off a bit. Anyway, I think it's time for the McNabb/Reid era to end; how many times do Eagles fans have to watch that movie end the same way?

But back to the Cardinals, your 2008-09 NFC champions. This goes to show A) how random the playoffs have been this year, and B) how badly the NFL needs to fix their playoff seeding. A 9-7 team (3-7 other than their games with the Seahawks, 49ers, and Rams), getting two home games in the playoffs, should never happen. In the AFC, an 8-8 team hosting a 12-4 team, should also never happen. I really hope the league takes a look at this soon.

On the other hand, we have the AFC champion Pittsburgh Steelers. A perennial juggernaut, there is no doubt they belong in this Super Bowl. It's their first Super Bowl appearance since 2005-06, when they faced another average NFC west team that simply won 3 games in a row at the right time. Pittsburgh of course won that game, so they hope history repeats itself. And the similarities with past Steeler triumphs don't end there. Following the 1979 season, the Steelers' Super Bowl XIV opponent was a 9-7 Rams team who, at the time, were the worst team ever to play in a Super Bowl. The Rams were feisty though. Like the 2008 Cardinals, they had an ex-Steeler coordinator on their side, the late Bud Carson, and the game was in doubt until a late Franco Harris touchdown run sealed a 31-19 win. History Fever, catch it folks!

Super Bowl prediction coming in a future post. (I'll try to make it by Sunday, February 1st - sort of helps the credibility.) Now if you'll excuse me, I'm off to watch last year's Super Bowl about 4 or 5 more times.