Among eventual champions, "rock bottom" loss rare but not unprecedented

The Giants looked disgraceful at Indy last night. They were flat, uninspired, and gave up two of the easiest touchdowns you'll see in the NFL: A 1st quarter 7-yard Donald Brown TD run where no Giants' defender got within 5 yards of Brown - the kind of play where, if you were playing Madden and were purposely positioning all your defenders as far away from the play as possible, one of them still would have wandered closer to Brown than the Giants came during this play...then in the 2nd quarter, they let the Colts' most sure-handed yet slowest receiver, TE Dallas Clark, get behind everyone down the middle of the field for an easy 50 yard TD. The Giants allowed 410 yards in all, and lost 38-14.

So where is the positive spin on this blowout loss? In trying to put it into perspective, I thought about how some teams that would go on to win titles, have faced this kind of embarrassment before. The best example is probably the 1994 49ers. They lost in Week 5 to Philadelphia, 40-8, during which Steve Young was benched. Those Eagles weren't world beaters either - they would finish 7-9 in '94. The 49ers went on to win 10 of the final 11 regular season games, and rout the Chargers in the Super Bowl.

Other, less dramatic examples of eventual champions looking awful:

1974 Steelers: Shut out at home by Oakland, 17-0, in Week 3. Went on to stomp those same Raiders in the playoffs, on their way to a Super Bowl IX victory over Minnesota.

1979 Steelers: Lost 34-10 at Cincinnati in Week 7. The Bengals had come into that game 0-6, and would finish 4-12. Pitsburgh used the loss as a wake up call, went 12-4, and beat the Rams in Super Bowl XIV.

1992 Cowboys: Beaten 31-7 at Philadelphia in Week 5, following their bye. Finished 13-3 and blew out Buffalo in Super Bowl XXVII.

2006 Colts: Dropped a Week 14 matchup at (eventual) 8-8 Jacksonville, 44-17. It was their 2nd loss in a row, and they'd go on to lose at 6-10 Houston two weeks later. Won Super Bowl XLI over Chicago.

2007 Giants: Several ugly losses, including an 0-2 start in which they gave up a combined 80 points to Dallas and Green Bay, a 41-17 loss in Week 12 to Minnesota (eventually 8-8) at home, and, even when it appeared they had things figured out late in the year, a Week 15 home loss against Washington, 22-10. So several terrible defensive performances, by the unit that would go on to shut down the most prolific offense ever, in the greatest Super Bowl ever.

I'm not saying an embarassing loss means a team is going to win a championship...but it doesn't necessarily disqualify a team from one either.

(Photo courtesy of Kissing Suzy Kolber.)

What would Public Enemy say about Week 1?

If there was a theme in Week 1 in the NFL, it was "Don't believe the hype." Let's take a look at a few highly touted, trendy-pick teams and how they fared.

*New York Jets: The Super Bowl pick of many, 9-7 a year ago with a miracle run to the AFC Championship, they were shut down by Baltimore. 9 points, 5 first downs, 1 Braylon Edwards beard. Apparently you also need an offense to win consistently in the NFL.

*San Francisco 49ers: In spite of no reason to think they are improved, annointed as the new NFC West favorite (though that's not saying much). They got clobbered 31-6 by Seattle. Yes, Seattle. When will Mike Singletary learn that acting all tough and wearing a stopwatch around your neck, isn't really coaching or strategy?

*Oakland Raiders: Supposed to be vastly improved. I bought into this somewhat, picking them to go 6-10, and I still think they'll win their fair share of games at home. But other than adding Jason Campbell, they're still the Raiders. They were smacked in Tennessee, 38-13.

Week 1 just goes to show - when you're presented with a disagreement between seemingly undeserved hoopla, and common sense, trust your gut. And don't believe the hype.

2010 NFL Preview

So apparently there's a football league that begins play tonight, or something? Yes, at long last, the NFL is back. Various NFL Films treats on Hulu have helped me to pass the long summer, but nothing beats a new season.

This will be my 3rd year of predictions in this space. Here are my previews from 2008, and 2009, for mockery's sake.

I thought quite a bit about how to approach my Super Bowl pick. I almost bogged myself down with too many rules: Don't pick prior participants because that's too easy, don't pick teams that are popular choices among others, and don't pick any teams you have a personal affinity for. But if you impose too many of these limitations, you're left picking the Raiders against someone from the NFC West. So every option is on the table. Rules? THERE ARE NO RULES!!! And away we go...

2010 Predicted NFL Standings

AFC EAST

New England 11-5
NY Jets 10-6*
Miami 9-7
Buffalo 3-13

TOTAL: 33-31 (Last season: 32-32)

Until the Patriots fall flat on their faces (a day I look forward to), I can't go against them. I can't ignore the Jets as a contender either, but expectations are sky high and Mark Sanchez still has a lot to learn - starting of course with how to not throw almost twice as many interceptions than touchdowns. Miami will be good. Buffalo will not.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh 11-5
Baltimore 10-6*
Cincinnati 6-10
Cleveland 5-11

TOTAL: 32-32 (Last season: 33-31)

Roethlisberger's suspension is only 4 games, and Pittsburgh's reasonable early season schedule will help them stay where they want to be. And this team just seems to thrive with lower expectations. The Ravens, like the Patriots, are always around. The Bengals, with Owens and Ochocinco together, are bound to implode. The Browns are the Browns.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis 12-4
Houston 10-6
Tennessee 8-8
Jacksonville 5-11

TOTAL: 35-29 (Last season: 37-27)

Houston closes a lot of ground, but they're still at least a year away from finally dethroning the Colts. Not much going on with the Titans and Jags, but the difference between these two teams is Jeff Fisher's consistency: only 4 losing seasons in 15 as head coach. So even a weak Tennessee team being terrible is unlikely.

AFC WEST

San Diego 9-7
Denver 7-9
Kansas City 6-10
Oakland 6-10

TOTAL: 28-36 (Last season: 30-34)

Not much to get excited about here. Norv Turner's Chargers will again win the division by default, only to exit the playoffs early. Oakland will improve the most, mainly thanks to the addition of the capable Jason Campbell. The Broncos and Chiefs are just kind of, eh, "there."

----------------------

NFC EAST

NY Giants 11-5
Dallas 11-5*
Philadelphia 10-6
Washington 8-8

TOTAL: 40-24 (Last season: 34-30)

A couple weeks ago, I talked about the reasons why the Giants should be better, even agreeing with Peter King in the process. They're healthy - the biggest acquisition in the NFL might have been the Giants getting Kenny Phillips back from injury - they added more depth to the defensive line, they replaced ineffective defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan with Perry Fewell, and a mostly young offense that was never the problem, is still intact. It will be a close race, but they'll win the NFC East over Dallas and Philadelphia, who won't look much like Super Bowl contenders for many weeks at a time, but will hang around. In Washington, bringing in Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan to run things, replacing dum dum Vinny Cerrato and poor, overmatched Jim Zorn, is worth at least 4 wins alone. And McNabb is an upgrade over Campbell, though not as much as people might think. The Redskins will be a .500 team, with or without Haynesworth.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay 11-5
Minnesota 10-6*
Detroit 7-9
Chicago 4-12

TOTAL: 32-32 (Last season: 32-32)

I see Aaron Rodgers taking another step forward, this time to MVP status. While I see the Vikings taking a slight step backward. This will be the year Favre doesn't start all 16 games. I have a couple friends who are Lions fans, and I think they'd be delighted to see their team go 7-9, especially if it contains shows of promise by their young core. 4-12 for the Bears might be harsh, but if I can alter a quote from Joakim Noah..."What, you think Chicago's cool? What's so good about Chicago?"

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans 12-4
Atlanta 10-6
Carolina 8-8
Tampa Bay 4-12

TOTAL: 34-30 (Last season: 33-31)

I don't see any reason why the Saints can't be dominant again this year. The Falcons will again be tough, but again just miss the playoffs. Carolina just screams out "mediocre," and the Bucs are still years from being competitive.

NFC WEST

San Francisco 7-9
Arizona 6-10
Seattle 6-10
St. Louis 3-13

TOTAL: 22-42 (Last season: 24-40)

What can be said about this division that hasn't already been said about a dirty sidewalk in Calcutta?

PLAYOFFS!???

Wild Card Round:
Patriots over Ravens
Jets over Chargers
Packers over Vikings
Cowboys over 49ers

Divisional Round:
Colts over Patriots
Steelers over Jets
Giants over Cowboys
Saints over Packers

Championship Round:
Giants over Saints
Steelers over Colts

Super Bowl:
Giants over Steelers. That's right, I'm picking the Giants. Forget cautious optimism, forget not wanting to jinx your team, and forget the collapse of 2009. Do not be afraid to love again! Wooooo! And it's going to be all the sweeter when this comes true.

Finally, last season I think I said it well enough that it doesn't need changing, so I'll just repaste...

*And one final disclaimer: Reason # 13,661 that the NFL is so awesome, is that the landscape changes so quickly, and week-to-week it is like looking into a kaleidoscope. So, I fully expect that by week 2, these picks will look as dated as bellbottoms, long sideburns, or the goatee. (2010 add: or "Jersey Shore" references.)