2009 NFL Preview

Time again to roll out an NFL season preview! Here is how I did last season.

2009 Predicted NFL Standings

AFC EAST

New England 12-4
NY Jets 9-7
Miami 8-8
Buffalo 8-8

TOTAL: 37-27 (Last season: 38-26)

Tom Brady is back - and while New England is no longer allowed to cheat, they'll resume dominance of the division. Miami took a big jump last year, and whenever a team takes a meteoric, unexpected rise in one season, they fall back to earth the next. (I base this on absolutely no tangible data.) Mark Sanchez will throw less interceptions than Brett Favre for the Jets, but they still don't have a complete team to challenge for the title. Buffalo is better with Terrell Owens, who will behave himself, but they've got a long way to go as well.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh 11-5
Baltimore 10-6*
Cincinnati 6-10
Cleveland 5-11

TOTAL: 32-32 (Last season: 31-32-1)

The Steelers and Ravens will both be slightly down this year, but still leaps and bounds above the Bengals and Browns. On paper, there seems to be no reason the Steelers can't repeat. But, after their Super Bowl XL triumph they struggled a bit, and I think we could see the same thing in 2009.

AFC SOUTH

Tennessee 11-5
Indianapolis 10-6*
Jacksonville 8-8
Houston 7-9

TOTAL: 36-28 (Last season: 38-26)

The Jaguars are improved, but I still don't see them as reaching the level of the Titans or Colts. The Colts take a step backward without their coach and leader, Tony Dungy. But any team led by a healthy Peyton Manning has a pretty high "floor" for wins in a season. The Texans are nothing special besides Andre Johnson, but they will be competitive.

AFC WEST

San Diego 9-7
Denver 5-11
Kansas City 5-11
Oakland 3-13

TOTAL: 22-42 (Last season: 23-41)

I don't see much changing from last season here. San Diego will again win by default, over two teams in transition and a third that resembles the baker on Sesame Street falling down a flight of steps while carrying 10 chocolate cakes (the legendary Jim Henson - here's the video, watch the last 15 seconds, it's totally worth it.).

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NFC EAST

Dallas 11-5
NY Giants 11-5*
Philadelphia 11-5*
Washington 8-8

TOTAL: 41-23 (Last season: 38-25-1)

This should again be the best division in the NFL. And again the NFC East has been blessed with an easy "dance partner," cycling with the AFC West. (Last year they had the NFC West.) Other than Washington at San Diego in week 17, this could be clean 16 game sweep. But, you never know and that's what makes the NFL great; any team can beat any other team in one game. It's a cop-out that I'm not picking a clear division winner, I really can't decide...but I'm confident that the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles will all make the playoffs, regardless of division winner.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay 11-5
Minnesota 9-7
Chicago 7-9
Detroit 4-12

TOTAL: 30-34 (Last season: 25-39)

The Packers quietly continue to build around Aaron Rodgers and will have a solid season. Adrian Peterson leads the NFL in rushing, but the Vikings are sabotaged by the Gunslinger. The Bears are mediocre, and the Lions, well...they can't get any worse than last year. This season they'll stumble into 4 wins and lose out on the first draft pick.

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans 11-5
Carolina 10-6
Atlanta 10-6
Tampa Bay 5-11

TOTAL: 36-28 (Last season: 40-24)

The Saints put on a show, but I don't see them doing anything in playoffs. Carolina is tough to stop on the ground, but Steve Smith may start to show his age. The Falcons become another example of a team that takes a big jump then regresses a bit the following season (again, based on no data). The Bucs continue their collapse from last season, when they lost their last four games.

NFC WEST

Arizona 7-9
Seattle 5-11
San Francisco 5-11
St. Louis 5-11

TOTAL: 22-42 (Last season: 22-42)

These teams went 10-30 outside this division last season and don't look any more palatable this season. So I'll give 7 wins to my projected NFC West winner, Arizona - 6 of which will come by getting 2 apiece against Seattle, San Francisco, and St. Louis. Last season before their improbable run to the Super Bowl, the Cardinals were 6-0 against the NFC West; but 3-7 against actual NFL teams. I believe an easy road to the playoffs is the best way to prepare for a deep postseason run, and the Cardinals will again have that luxury.

PLAYOFFS!???

Wild Card Round:
Steelers over Colts (Steelers still too physical for Colts, especially at home)
Ravens over Chargers
Giants over Saints
Cardinals over Eagles (A 7-9 team hosts a playoff game against an 11-5 team...the NFL still refuses to fix the seeding/home game awarding system. McNabb and Reid fail again, Vick era begins.)

Divisional Round:
Patriots over Steelers
Titans over Ravens
Packers over Cardinals
Giants over Cowboys (Romo still doesn't win a playoff game, even after a 1st round bye.)

Championship Round:
Titans over Patriots (Belichick drowns his sorrows by again stealing another man's wife.)
Packers over Giants (Lack of game breaking WR finally catches up to Giants.)

Super Bowl:
Titans over Packers (Jeff Fisher, currently the longest tenured and perhaps best coach in the league, finally wins a championship.)

*And one final disclaimer: Reason # 13,661 that the NFL is so awesome, is that the landscape changes so quickly, and week-to-week it is like looking into a kaleidoscope. So, I fully expect that by week 2, these picks will look as dated as bellbottoms, long sideburns, or the goatee.