What would a prediction be without revisiting it when it can truly be evaluated? Not doing so would be like evaluating a draft class before they ever take the field, and not doing it at the end of the season, or even the season after. Which you actually never see. Anyway, here we go! We'll start with the final season standings, with my predictions in parenthesis. And I'll grade my predictions for each division.AFC
EAST
Dolphins 11-5 (7-9)
Patriots 11-5 (11-5)
Jets 9-7 (10-6)
Bills 7-9 (8-8)
TOTAL: 38-26 (36-28)
GRADE: A. I don't think anyone predicted the Dolphins would improve the way they did. I believe Chad Pennington is the MVP. The Jets deserved what they got this season (Brett Favre) for dumping Chad. Other than Miami, my predictions were all within one game of actual records. And I successfully tabbed this to be a strong division.
NORTH
Steelers 12-4 (11-5)
*Ravens 11-5 (5-11)
Bengals 4-11-1 (6-10)
Browns 4-12 (9-7)
TOTAL: 31-32-1 (31-33)
GRADE: C+. Sure, I got it right with the Steelers, but they are there every year. Really a model organization. But boy did I miss on the Ravens. And can someone remind me why I thought the Browns would be good? The only saving grace here was that I was so close on overall division strength - a mere 1/2 game away. Also I correctly predicted the Bengals would be a mess, but that was easy too.
SOUTH
Titans 13-3 (6-10)
*Colts 12-4 (12-4)
Texans 8-8 (7-9)
Jaguars 5-11 (11-5)
TOTAL: 38-26 (36-28)
GRADE: C-. The Colts I nailed, but again, model organization, and they are good every year (though it actually didn't start out looking that way, with the slow start and Manning's knee surgeries.) I never saw the Titans coming, and missed big on the Jags - then again, mostly everyone else did too. And again I saved a little face by forecasting overall division strength.
WEST
Chargers 8-8 (10-6)
Broncos 8-8 (7-9)
Raiders 5-11 (7-9)
Chiefs 2-14 (6-10)
TOTAL: 23-41 (30-34)
GRADE: C. I don't take much solace in correctly predicting the finishing order of all these scrub teams. I didn't totally whiff by a mile, but didn't see anything particularly special either. This division doesn't deserve any more of my time than it already got, so let's move to the NFC now...
NFC
EAST
Giants 12-4 (10-6)
*Eagles 9-6-1 (10-6)
Cowboys 9-7 (11-5)
Redskins 8-8 (7-9)
TOTAL: 38-25-1 (38-26)
GRADE: A+. Ding ding ding ding! I hit the Giants and Eagles going to the playoffs, the overall division record within 1/2 game, and every team's record within 2 games. The only thing I missed was the Cowboys not going to the playoffs...but hey, I'm glad to be wrong about that.
NORTH
Vikings 10-6 (10-6)
Bears 9-7 (5-11)
Packers 6-10 (10-6)
Lions 0-16 (8-8)
TOTAL: 25-39 (33-31)
GRADE: D. Good on the Vikings, off on everyone else. Special attention goes to the Lions going 0-16, as I may not get the chance to mention it elsewhere. How awesome is that?
SOUTH
Panthers 12-4 (10-6)
*Falcons 11-5 (4-12)
Buccaneers 9-7 (9-7)
Saints 8-8 (9-7)
TOTAL: 40-24 (32-32)
GRADE: B-. Got the division winner, and very close on 3 of the 4 teams overall. But what a season for the Falcons. Matt Ryan gives hope to any future team hoping to draft a QB high in the first round, but not feel like they are relegated to "rebuilding" for 2 or 3 years with a bad record. (So did Joe Flacco in Baltimore for that matter.)
WEST
Cardinals 9-7 (6-10)
49ers 7-9 (3-13)
Seahawks 4-12 (6-10)
Rams 2-14 (5-11)
TOTAL: 22-42 (20-44)
GRADE: Incomplete. Everything I said about the AFC West not deserving my attention applies even more to this group. What a terrible, worthless bunch of teams. And if not for one particular team quitting in December and losing to both the 49ers and Seahawks, this division would have matched my predicted total record. But, I correctly identified this as the worst division ever, and gave the Cardinals a tie for 1st place, so there you go.
PLAYOFFS!???
AFC: 3 of 6 teams correct - Steelers, Colts, Chargers.
NFC: 4 of 6 teams correct - Giants, Eagles, Vikings, Panthers (and a bonus 1/2 point for the Cardinals).
Preseason Super Bowl Prediction of Giants vs. Colts
Alive and well...
1 comment:
Though I can't prove it...I think it'd be fairly easy to come closer on overall division record than you might think. With 4 teams...I bet it'd average out in the long run to something close to what you'd expect...even if you're a mile off on two or more teams. I'm no fan of referencing this stat.
The Lions going 0-16 was AWESOME. They'll still suck for years to come...which sucks...but at least they accomplished a monumental task this year and didn't 1-15 it like a bunch of other scrub teams. Didn't your Jets have a 1-15 year about 10 years ago?
That's all...
Joe
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