The opposite of FJM-ing: Mike Freeman

CBS News's Mike Freeman had the courage to write this truth today. Insightful, bold, and since he just so happens to agree with me, brilliant. If you agree with him too, I encourage you to write Mike some positive feedback, as he is no doubt being bombarded with plenty of hate mail from bandwagon Cardinals fans.

That, or you can just go with the empty, vague, unquestioned cliche of "What a great story," as was done with the Tampa Bay Rays making the World Series. You can probably tell that I am annoyed by underdogs winning things, and that goes against probably 80-90% of mankind's approach to sports. I have tried to examine myself in the past few weeks and discover why this is so, and I think I am finally able to articulate it. I feel cheated when the team that I deemed was the better team coming in, doesn't come away victorious. Not cheated as in, "That team must have cheated to win," but cheated in the sense of being gypped, or deprived. I know, why bother playing the games if the underdogs can't win. But if I feel an outcome is a fluke, I tend to be disappointed. Yes, I root for the Yankees. I also root for Microsoft. And America. And yes, the Giants were the underdog in Super Bowl XLII. But they truly were better than the Patriots, evident in their physical domination of the more finesse-built Patriots at the line of scrimmage. That was no fluke. Tyree's catch? Also no fluke - only the greatest play in the history of organized team sports. (See, I have it all covered.)

The only thing I disagree with in Mike Freeman's column is that this Super Bowl's ratings will be sigificantly lower because the Cardinals are in. I think it will draw good viewing numbers, because A) The lack of Cardinals fans nationally will be more than compensated for by the abundance of Steelers fans nationally (Pittsburgh is the REAL America's Team; nice try with your 1970s marketing ploy, Cowboys)...and B) People watch the Super Bowl no matter what teams are playing. The NFL is not like the NBA or Major League Baseball - it just isn't affected as much by what cities/teams are involved.

Super Bowl Preview continued: A Contrast in Fanhood

I just this morning finished watching the tape of the Steelers-Ravens AFC Championship matchup, having been out and about at times during the game. I have always known Steelers fans to be the best of all NFL fan bases. This was only confirmed when an injured Willis McGahee was being brought into the tunnel, amongst Steelers' faithful, and the CBS microphones were on. Usually this would be a nervous moment for any TV network, as who knows what any one random fan will yell. But everything I could make out being yelled by Steelers fans at that moment, were things like "Good luck buddy," and "Get well." Who knows what a random Raiders fan, Eagles fan, Browns fan, or Cardinals fan, would have yelled at that moment.

Speaking of Cardinals fans, we have this tidbit of news from this morning. Classy! Who says the locals couldn't sink any lower than during the 2007 NLCS, when hundreds of Diamondback fans threw garbage onto the field to protest a questionable umpire call while their team was being beaten by a superior Rockies team? I like how the guy on the right of the two mugshot photos, was allowed to keep his Cardinals hat on for his big moment. Sweet goatee too. The year 1999 called, it wants its beard style back. (Also, the Jerk Store called...)

Super Early Super Bowl XLIII Preview

To start with two observations...I know we often fall victim to the Error of Recency, but I believe Larry Fitzgerald is the best wide receiver ever. He is faster, stronger, and taller than Jerry Rice, and has just as good hands as Rice had. And I never saw Rice fight for as many "50/50" balls the way Fitzgerald can. Now, I'm willing to be convinced otherwise, as I realize I never saw Rice in his early years when he was at his most athletic, and physically dominant. But either way, before touting Kurt Warner for MVP due to his gawdy fantasy stats, just realize that any starting NFL QB (except probably Brett Favre) could be made to look pretty darn good if they were throwing to Fitzgerald. Heck, I think I could throw to him.

Also, I feel the Eagles' defense turned in the worst NFC championship performance ever. Kurt Warner was so, so comfortable in the pocket. Although both the Cardinals and Eagles won only 9 games in the 2008 regular season, I considered the Eagles the better team, and therefore have no choice but to call this another Eagles' choke. True, the Eagles got burned by some bad calls, but it shouldn't have come to that. I have a couple of friends who are Eagles fans and I genuinely feel bad for them. But hey, at least they have the Phillies, that should take the sting off a bit. Anyway, I think it's time for the McNabb/Reid era to end; how many times do Eagles fans have to watch that movie end the same way?

But back to the Cardinals, your 2008-09 NFC champions. This goes to show A) how random the playoffs have been this year, and B) how badly the NFL needs to fix their playoff seeding. A 9-7 team (3-7 other than their games with the Seahawks, 49ers, and Rams), getting two home games in the playoffs, should never happen. In the AFC, an 8-8 team hosting a 12-4 team, should also never happen. I really hope the league takes a look at this soon.

On the other hand, we have the AFC champion Pittsburgh Steelers. A perennial juggernaut, there is no doubt they belong in this Super Bowl. It's their first Super Bowl appearance since 2005-06, when they faced another average NFC west team that simply won 3 games in a row at the right time. Pittsburgh of course won that game, so they hope history repeats itself. And the similarities with past Steeler triumphs don't end there. Following the 1979 season, the Steelers' Super Bowl XIV opponent was a 9-7 Rams team who, at the time, were the worst team ever to play in a Super Bowl. The Rams were feisty though. Like the 2008 Cardinals, they had an ex-Steeler coordinator on their side, the late Bud Carson, and the game was in doubt until a late Franco Harris touchdown run sealed a 31-19 win. History Fever, catch it folks!

Super Bowl prediction coming in a future post. (I'll try to make it by Sunday, February 1st - sort of helps the credibility.) Now if you'll excuse me, I'm off to watch last year's Super Bowl about 4 or 5 more times.

Time to reach into my mail sack

Before I say anything else, let me announce how pleased I am with the cartoon photo I found to represent my mailbag entry. I appreciate the mailbag that says "Mail" and has a picture of a piece of mail on it, the way I appreciate a sack with the dollar sign on it to represent that it has money in it. Onward we go now...

In response to my prior post, loyal reader, fellow radio professional, and friend (obviously, as no non-friends of mine read my blog) Joe provoked enough thought worth replying to, so I wanted to make a new entry for it. Partly also because I only make like 5 postings per month on this blog anymore, and that's lame, so I need to pad my stats some. Anyway, Joe writes...

Though I can't prove it...I think it'd be fairly easy to come closer on overall division record than you might think. With 4 teams...I bet it'd average out in the long run to something close to what you'd expect...even if you're a mile off on two or more teams. I'm no fan of referencing this stat.

The Lions going 0-16 was AWESOME. They'll still suck for years to come...which sucks...but at least they accomplished a monumental task this year and didn't 1-15 it like a bunch of other scrub teams. Didn't your Jets have a 1-15 year about 10 years ago?

Thanks for reading Joe! You do make a good point about the overall division records - I could miss badly on two teams, one over and one under, yet come close to my estimate. I had not fully taken that into account in the predictions where I graded myself high mainly based on this criterion. However, it's not as easy when predicting entire divisions to be far above or below .500. The idea was to predict divisional strength in general, so I'm still going to pathetically cling to how close I came to, for instance, the NFC East's 38 wins and NFC West's 22 wins.

And I agree about the Lions - no sense in just one-and-fifteening it like many other teams. May as well go full-on historic with it. Now, when you mention them as "your" (as in "my") Jets, I can refer you to this, as my Jet fandom went from summer 1997 to September 2008 (arrived with Parcells/Martin era and left with Pennington)...but yes, the Rich Kotite/Frank Reich/Adrian Murrell Jets went 1-15 in 1996, and boy were they laughable. And on that note I will encourage you to join me in leaving your abusive NFL relationship and seeking refuge with the kind of winning team you deserve. In other words, I can sum up my persuasive argument thusly...Big Blue, Big Blue, Big Blue! (And I don't mean the University of Michigan.)

2008 NFL Season in Review (and predictions revisited)

What would a prediction be without revisiting it when it can truly be evaluated? Not doing so would be like evaluating a draft class before they ever take the field, and not doing it at the end of the season, or even the season after. Which you actually never see. Anyway, here we go! We'll start with the final season standings, with my predictions in parenthesis. And I'll grade my predictions for each division.

AFC

EAST

Dolphins 11-5 (7-9)
Patriots 11-5 (11-5)
Jets 9-7 (10-6)
Bills 7-9 (8-8)

TOTAL: 38-26 (36-28)

GRADE: A. I don't think anyone predicted the Dolphins would improve the way they did. I believe Chad Pennington is the MVP. The Jets deserved what they got this season (Brett Favre) for dumping Chad. Other than Miami, my predictions were all within one game of actual records. And I successfully tabbed this to be a strong division.

NORTH

Steelers 12-4 (11-5)
*Ravens 11-5 (5-11)
Bengals 4-11-1 (6-10)
Browns 4-12 (9-7)

TOTAL: 31-32-1 (31-33)

GRADE: C+. Sure, I got it right with the Steelers, but they are there every year. Really a model organization. But boy did I miss on the Ravens. And can someone remind me why I thought the Browns would be good? The only saving grace here was that I was so close on overall division strength - a mere 1/2 game away. Also I correctly predicted the Bengals would be a mess, but that was easy too.

SOUTH

Titans 13-3 (6-10)
*Colts 12-4 (12-4)
Texans 8-8 (7-9)
Jaguars 5-11 (11-5)

TOTAL: 38-26 (36-28)

GRADE: C-. The Colts I nailed, but again, model organization, and they are good every year (though it actually didn't start out looking that way, with the slow start and Manning's knee surgeries.) I never saw the Titans coming, and missed big on the Jags - then again, mostly everyone else did too. And again I saved a little face by forecasting overall division strength.

WEST

Chargers 8-8 (10-6)
Broncos 8-8 (7-9)
Raiders 5-11 (7-9)
Chiefs 2-14 (6-10)
TOTAL: 23-41 (30-34)

GRADE: C. I don't take much solace in correctly predicting the finishing order of all these scrub teams. I didn't totally whiff by a mile, but didn't see anything particularly special either. This division doesn't deserve any more of my time than it already got, so let's move to the NFC now...

NFC

EAST

Giants 12-4 (10-6)
*Eagles 9-6-1 (10-6)
Cowboys 9-7 (11-5)
Redskins 8-8 (7-9)

TOTAL: 38-25-1 (38-26)

GRADE: A+. Ding ding ding ding! I hit the Giants and Eagles going to the playoffs, the overall division record within 1/2 game, and every team's record within 2 games. The only thing I missed was the Cowboys not going to the playoffs...but hey, I'm glad to be wrong about that.

NORTH

Vikings 10-6 (10-6)
Bears 9-7 (5-11)
Packers 6-10 (10-6)
Lions 0-16 (8-8)

TOTAL: 25-39 (33-31)

GRADE: D. Good on the Vikings, off on everyone else. Special attention goes to the Lions going 0-16, as I may not get the chance to mention it elsewhere. How awesome is that?

SOUTH

Panthers 12-4 (10-6)
*Falcons 11-5 (4-12)
Buccaneers 9-7 (9-7)
Saints 8-8 (9-7)

TOTAL: 40-24 (32-32)

GRADE: B-. Got the division winner, and very close on 3 of the 4 teams overall. But what a season for the Falcons. Matt Ryan gives hope to any future team hoping to draft a QB high in the first round, but not feel like they are relegated to "rebuilding" for 2 or 3 years with a bad record. (So did Joe Flacco in Baltimore for that matter.)

WEST

Cardinals 9-7 (6-10)
49ers 7-9 (3-13)
Seahawks 4-12 (6-10)
Rams 2-14 (5-11)

TOTAL: 22-42 (20-44)

GRADE: Incomplete. Everything I said about the AFC West not deserving my attention applies even more to this group. What a terrible, worthless bunch of teams. And if not for one particular team quitting in December and losing to both the 49ers and Seahawks, this division would have matched my predicted total record. But, I correctly identified this as the worst division ever, and gave the Cardinals a tie for 1st place, so there you go.

PLAYOFFS!???

AFC: 3 of 6 teams correct - Steelers, Colts, Chargers.
NFC: 4 of 6 teams correct - Giants, Eagles, Vikings, Panthers (and a bonus 1/2 point for the Cardinals).

Preseason Super Bowl Prediction of Giants vs. Colts

Alive and well...

31 other GMs can't be wrong

We've seen several interesting examples this season of players that no one else wanted, signing on for one last chance with the one team who thought they still had something left. So far, Ty Law is looking to be a non-factor with the Jets. Shaun Alexander hung on for just weeks with the Redskins. And Richie Sexson spent about a month with the Yankees. All were examples of low-risk, scrap heap pickups of guys appeared to be nearing the end...who, as it turns out, really are near the end. I guess if nothing else, it's a lesson that often the masses are correct. Sure, sometimes you're the only one who believes in something, and you turn out to be right. But the majority of the time, you can just save yourself the effort, and take cues from others.

Coming up next week: My long awaited (by no one) NFL Season in Review.

Does anybody remember laughter?

I would just like to bring more attention to the craziness that has ensued on my friend Mike's blog the past couple days over this post:

http://mikekenny.blogspot.com/2008/07/classic-card-of-week_8747.html

Yes, a photo of me is included, but it's not really about me. First and foremost, I want you to read Mike's post on this SI For Kids card featuring a speed skater, and enjoy it on its own merits. I dare you not to laugh, and I dare you to try to take it literally or in a totally serious/factual light.

Now read the comments at the bottom made by "Brian Krans," and the second "Anonymous."

I know it's an extremely small sample size, and as Mike says, they may even be the same person...but after seeing these comments I have truly begun to question the ability of people (or at least a percentage of people) in America in the year 2008 to laugh, or even to grasp the concept of humor when done by others.

I am still leaving open a slight possibility that these people were themselves trying to be sarcastic or satirical, or trying to bait us in some way. But, if I may quote another great blog, the now defunct FJM: If this is bait...I've taken it, and it's delicious.

Speaking of voting people in for things...

Stephon Marbury for NBA All-Star! How awesome would it be to vote him into the starting lineup of the 2009 all-star game, while he sits on the bench in a suit making $20 million during a standoff with the Knicks that again reminds of George Costanza's showdown with Play Now.

You can vote on NBA.com once every 24 hours. Come on folks, together we can make a difference. You do have to sign up for a login and password, but it doesn't take very long, and the possible reward is so much sweeter.

Steph '09: Yes We Can! Yes We Can!

Mussina: Lacking in championships, but...

Mike Mussina retired today. I'm going to jump way ahead here and say he should be in the Hall of Fame someday. He never won a championship, and doesn't have 300 wins, two things that will hurt him in the "shortcut" department, but he's still worthy. I don't like to cherry-pick arguments, but I'll compare him to a pitcher who is generally cited as the next pitcher who should be inducted, Jack Morris. Neither were truly dominant for an extended period of time, or won a Cy Young. But Mussina is better than Morris any way you slice it. Morris, the winningest pitcher of the 80s, had a 254-186 record in 18 seasons. Mussina was 270-153, in 18 seasons. 61 percentage points higher, and 16 more wins (sure, Mussina had the Yankee offense behind him for 8 of these seasons, but Morris played for several championship teams.) And obviously wins are overrated for pitchers, but that's what the voters judge by. So, I have to speak their language. You know, "When in Rome..."

Now, in career ERAs, I see as the biggest difference. Morris: 3.90. League average ERA during his career: 4.08. That's a career ERA+ of 105. In other words, Morris was barely better than the league average pitcher for his career. Mussina's career ERA: 3.68. League average ERA: 4.51. ERA+: 123. I'd even go back now and say that Morris played for better teams than Mussina, evident in Morris's .577 winning percentage with a barely above league-average ERA. Of course you can point to the postseason for Morris. He has the 1991 World Series, Game 7, the 10 scoreless innings. That is a great performance in a big spot, that I can't take away. But to put it inperspective, it was one game. His career postseason stats, evenincluding this game, are pedestrian. 3.80 ERA. And his signature game is balanced out by his going 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA in thefollowing season's World Series with Toronto. The Jays won in spite of him! Again, Mussina is ringless, but it's no fault of his own. Career postseason ERA: 3.42. And how about his own signature postseason game? 2003 ALCS game 7, when he came in against Boston with the bases loaded and no one out (after that worm Clemens left in the 4th) and threw 3 scoreless innings, keeping the Yanks in the game, and we know what happened from there (thanks Aaron Boone). The next series, against the Marlins, he allowed 1 run in his only start of the series, beating Josh Beckett in game 3. Then in 2004, he left game 5 of the ALCS after 6 innings with a 4-2 lead before the bullpen lost it. Moose's postseason resume is definitely there. Plus, he closed out his career with a 20-win season, another overrated benchmark that sportswriters love.

Anyway, Mike Mussina was really good, and the Yankees have a tough job ahead in replacing him. I'm sure they'll be frugal and responsible about it, and not throw a bunch of money at someone who's not that good...

Box score incorrect?

I just want to make sure this is accurate...Brett Favre is 10-13, for 136 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs, as the Jets lead the Patriots 24-6 midway through the 2nd quarter. Since I don't get the NFL Network along with 90%* of the national television viewing audience, I have no way of verifying the authenticity of this information.

24-6 is a pretty nice beating so far, especially because this game is for the lead in the AFC East, the toughest division in the conference. Although I did say before the season that the Patriots would take a measurable step backwards this year, due to no longer being allowed to cheat.**

*Frustrated estimate; may not be accurate.
**Yes I just linked to myself.