Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Ridiculously early 2010 NFL schedule "win-loss" game

What fun would the 2010 schedule's release be without predicting a team's finishing record 4 1/2 months before the first game is played?

Before I get to the Giants, I'd like to clear up a couple myths about the NFL schedule. I have a feeling the percentage of fans who believe these is small - maybe 15-20% of fans - but I've heard both just within the past couple days so for what it's worth, let's help a few people here and there...

Myth 1: "Team X will have a tough year because they're playing a 1st place schedule."

There was a time when the "first place schedule" was a lot more meaningful, but in today's 8-division, 32-team NFL, it's a matter of two games. Which brings me to...

Myth 2: "Oh, Jets vs. Steelers, they scheduled that because of the Santonio Holmes trade."

Not only do just two games vary due to finishing order in the 16-game NFL schedule, but the NFL has control over exactly none of them. Here is how a team's schedule is put together:

*6 Division games (2 against each of 3 in-division opponents).
*4 Out of division, conference games (1 against each of 4 "dance partners" in that other division...for example, this year everyone in the NFC East plays everyone in the NFC North. Rotates every 3 years.)
*4 Out of conference games (again, 1 against each of 4 "dance partners"...this year, the NFC East plays the AFC South. Rotates every 4 years.)
*2 based on division finishing order, vs. in-conference team who finished in the same spot. The Giants finished third in the NFC East last season, so they'll get the third place team from the NFC West (Seattle), and the third place team from the NFC South (Carolina)

And there's your 16 games, folks! If I had to bet, I'd say all of my 4 or 5 readers already knew that, in which case this part was a waste of time. In any event, on we go to the wacky, meaningless, premature predictions! I'm basing the picks on current rosters, pre-NFL draft.


2010 Giants Regular Season Schedule:

Sept. 12 CAROLINA - W
Sept. 19 at Indianapolis - L

Sept. 26 TENNESSEE - W
Oct. 3 CHICAGO - W
Oct. 10 at Houston - L

Oct. 17 DETROIT - W
Oct. 25 (Mon.) at Dallas - W

Oct. 31 BYE
Nov. 7 at Seattle - W
Nov. 14 DALLAS W
Nov. 21 at Philadelphia - L
Nov. 28 JACKSONVILLE - W
Dec. 5 WASHINGTON- W
Dec. 12 at Minnesota - L
Dec. 19 PHILADELPHIA - L
Dec. 26 at Green Bay - L
Jan. 2 at Washington - L

So I've got 9-7, with another late season collapse (this time based more on schedule difficulty, contrasted with ought-nine when it was due to completely giving up on tackling, covering, and in general, life). The NFC East will be challenging as always, so 3-3 in-division seems about right. The split with Washington is due to them being improved, the sweep of Dallas is due to owning them in recent years (and the fact that I really dislike Dallas), and being swept by the Eagles is due to the continual nightmare of seeing DeSean Jackson at least 10 yards behind any member of the Giants' inept secondary, now led by inept Antrel Rolle. Playing Seattle and Carolina will help matters (hooray for the third place schedule, ironic isn't it?), though drawing the NFC North and AFC South makes for a tough group of opponents, save for the Lions and Bears.

And lacking here were adjustments for something you see from just about every team in a given season: winning a couple games they should have lost, and losing a couple they should have won. Upsets will happen. I just don't know where, so I don't believe in picking them here, as I feel that would be like a referee making one bad call, then later another bad call against the other team to make up for the first bad call.

Now all that's left is to actually play the games.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The NFC North stinks compared to the NFC East...take my word for it...

While Minnesota (assuming that ass-hat Favre comes back)and Green Bay should both be decent...Chicago and particularly Detroit are AWFUL.

Joe