Wednesday, September 14, 2011

The single dumbest thing ever said about baseball

Mariano Rivera recorded his 600th career save yesterday. He now trails current record holder Trevor Hoffman by 1. Saves are one of the least important stats in baseball, but some people think they are important. Rivera is the greatest pitcher who ever lived, but when he breaks the record for saves, that will not be the reason why.

Anyway, I don't know how I missed this a couple weeks ago, but better late than never...

Ted Leitner, San Diego Padres' radio play-by-play announcer, on August 22, at the ceremony to retire Trevor Hoffman's number:

"And I know baseball fans...baseball broadcasters...we love to argue. So we argue who's better, who's the best. But there is no argument. This is not a Padre broadcast bias, it's not a Padre fan bias. We know this. The only true measure of a closer is how many saves did you get. So today without any fear of argument I tell you that today the San Diego Padres retire the number of truly by that benchmark - the only benchmark - the greatest closer in the history of major league baseball."

Stare. Blink. Stare. I don't even know where to begin. This statement has already been torn apart, and this is one of those times I wish FJM was still around because no one did it better...but it would be kind of lazy for me to say absolutely nothing, so here goes...

But there is no argument.

NO ONE DENIES THIS!

This is not a Padre broadcast bias, it's not a Padre fan bias.

The lady doth protest too much, methinks.

We know this.

Have you seen Mariano Rivera pitch?

The only true measure of a closer is how many saves did you get.

Some might offer up that ERA, or WHIP, among other things, might be a better measure. How about postseason performance?

Hoffman: 13 innings, 3.46 ERA, with 4 precious, only-measure-being saves.
Rivera: 139 2/3 innings, 0.71 ERA, 42 saves. And 5 championship rings.

Is that cherry picking? How about just leaving it at regular season performance then...over their entire careers, Rivera's ERA has been greater than half a run less than Hoffman's (2.22 to 2.87). Hoffman pitched his entire career in the National League. ERA+: Hoffman, 141. That's really good. 14th all-time, in fact. Rivera, 205. That's highest of any pitcher who ever lived. To put it in perspective just how far and away Rivera is the best, Pedro Martinez is 2nd in ERA+, at 154. But by all means go on, Mr. Saves...

So today without any fear of argument

Again with the "No one dare argue with me, the subject is closed" gambit. Always a secure move. "Vin Diesel is the best actor ever and I fear no challenge because there is no other way to measure this other than how many cars blew up in his movies."

I tell you that today the San Diego Padres retire the number of truly by that benchmark - the only benchmark - the greatest closer in the history of major league baseball."

The sad thing is that Mo is about to pass Hoffman on the all-time saves list - the one metric Leitner thought was safe, and could use to call Hoffman "the best." What, like Mo wasn't going to get another 10 saves or so in his career at that point in August?

Look, I know you were there to honor Trevor Hoffman, but you could have done that by talking about his longevity, how he was beloved by the fans of San Diego for so many years, or how he's among the best of his generation. But you can't just say whatever and not expect to be called on it.

3 comments:

Stark Raving Matt said...

Hoffman may have had a lot of saves but at no point do I remember thinking, as a Mets fan, "Oh hell, Hoffman is in game over." That was only reserved for Mo. He is the only closer in the game to inspire such fear and awe that opposing players would quit before stepping to the plate.

Have you ever heard John Kruk describe Mo's first game in the majors? I don't remember enough of it to paraphrase, but basically after the first pitch he was ready to sit down. Jim Rome has had him tell the story on his show a few times, always makes me laugh.

The greatest closer ever is obviously Mariano Rivera. Long live the King!

mkenny59 said...

Wow, I'm not sure how I had not heard about this. Amazing. Loved the Vin Diesel analogy. Understanding, as you pointed out so well, how dumb "saves" as a statistic is, it's interesting to note how many four-out saves Mo has notched under his belt, which is, including the postseason, 100,000. I rounded up, but still. Nice work!

Bill said...

Thanks for the comments, gents.

Matt - I now add "Fear induced in opponents" to the list of stats that are better indicators of a pitcher's ability than saves. I don't recall being afraid of Hoffman in the '98 World Series...and obviously neither were the Yanks.

Mike - Good point in that all saves are not created equal. So many of Mo's saves began in the 8th inning, in high leverage situations. I rarely watched Hoffman play (shout out to Joe Morgan!), but I wonder how many of his 601 saves were of the 9th inning only, bases-empty, 3 run lead variety, against the Astros or something.