If you're just joining us, I'm 3-1 ATS (Against the Spread, for you non-gambling perverts) in the past 4 Super Bowls. I had Pittsburgh - 3 1/2 over Seattle in 2005-06. I was correct in '07, taking the Colts -9 1/2. I was right two years ago taking the Giants +14 against the Patriots. (Have I mentioned lately that the Giants won the Super Bowl?) And I was wrong last year in taking Pittsburgh -7 over Arizona. So, we're hoping to get back on the right (Super) track, and I think the right play here is Saints, + 5 1/2.I think the Colts will win the game, and I wouldn't be surprised if they covered the spread too. But on paper, we haven't had a Super Bowl this evenly matched in a while, and I just think 5 1/2 is a good value. Though it's only a slight lean. Also, in a contrarian play, I like "under" the posted total of 57. Wacky things happen in Super Bowls, so I don't think a shootout is quite the lock it seems to be.
On a personal note, I'll be feeling the most relaxed I've felt going into a Super Bowl in 7 years, as this is the first time since 2002-03's Bucs-Raiders matchup in which I don't really have a dog in the fight. No, I'm not a Panthers, Eagles, Colts, Giants, and Steelers fan; my amount of desire of course varied game-to-game on which team I wanted to see win. But I had my reasons each time.
So, this one should just be fun to watch, and I think of all 32 teams, it's the perfect matchup if you don't care who wins either. Though if I had to choose, I'd go for the Colts, as I'd like to see Manning take his rightful place among the greatest quarterbacks of all-time.
Enjoy the game, and we'll see what happens!
9 comments:
Like the pick. In fact I have been railing against no one in particular of late due to everyone handing the Colts this game. The Saints have a better running game, more playmakers on both sides of the ball, and -- I say this not to be shocking but because I believe it to be true, and it's actually been a source of frustration for me that no one else sees it -- Drew Brees is just as good as Peyton Manning. I think the Saints win outright.
I can't wait till that comes back to haunt me.
mkenny59...
You're an idiot if you think Drew Brees is as good as Peyton Manning.
I'll give you Brees is a great QB...top 5 right now in the NFL for sure...and he makes the most of what he's got...but when it comes to raw talent...leadership, etc I'd take Manning over ANY quarterback right now...and with the exception of Montana...ever.
Colts win 34-24...though with the way both offenses play I wouldn't be shocked to see the Saints win.
Freeny's status has gotten WAY too much attention all week. He's not the difference in the game...turnovers will be.
Very interesting, Anonymous! I'd like to know which of my 4 readers you are, given it looks like you'll have to eat your words after the way the game turned out regarding the contrasting QB performances.
Also, you mentioned Freeney got WAY too much attention all week, even though you were the only one who mentioned him on this blog. That is a pet peeve of mine; similar to people who will call up a specific talk show - like, say, Andy Pollin and Steve Czaban on WTEM in Washington - and blame them for something "the media" has said, even though Pollin and Czaban gave the exact opposite view on their show.
I'd like to continue to allow anonymous comments on my blog, but I may rethink this if I get more comments of the drive-by, name-calling, backed-up-by-nothing variety.
Bill...
Relax...twas me...Joe...
And no...I don't back down from the comments at all. I simply forgot to put my name in at the end...to be honest I thought I had it there...guess not. Usually I start with it and work up.
The Freeney thing did get way too much attention.
Hartley should've been MVP...ROBBED!
Brees isn't THAT good...makes the most of his talent...but he'll NEVER be manning.
Would it be fair of me to argue Trent Dilfer and Manning and Brees are all equally good? Child please.
And last I checked the game did come down to turnovers...the Porter pick...and Baskett fumbled that ball away...call it a fumble or not...it's a turnover to me.
Huizenga
Joe! So 'twas you...if I was forced to guess I swear you're who I would have come up with as you're the only person in the world who still doesn't have a Google account. Then again, as you point out you usually put your name on it, plus it didn't quite seem like your voice to me. Like a few years ago when my aunt's myspace was hacked (remember myspace, everybody?), and she posted a bulletin that said, "Check out deez fresh new ringtones, yo..."
Anyway, on Freeney, true that he didn't turn out to be as much of a factor as the Colts would have asked for...though his one sack where he pushed the Saints' lineman back 5-10 yards, and grabbed Brees with one hand and threw him down, was simply absurd. As for Brees vs. Manning and Manning's legacy, I think if we're willing to say Manning would have taken a step up among the all-time greats with a win Sunday (at least that's what I was thinking), we also have to say he takes a step back with his almost gunslinger-esque force into Porter's clutches. Dilfer is not on Brees's or Manning's level, and no one would say he is, but the Super Bowl is the most heavily weighted of any judging point a QB has. Terry Bradshaw is an unquestioned legend, yet anyone who talks about Dan Marino's greatness does so with a mental asterisk that says "No Titles."
Based on the turnout of Sunday's game, and the fact that I have been called an idiot, I would like to inquire again as to why, exactly, Peyton Manning is better than Drew Brees. Please use more definable data than "makes the most of what he's got" and "leadership." Because I'm looking at the numbers and, well...
First off I'd like to say you're free to have any opinion you like...I can't PROVE Peyton Manning's a better QB...it's subjective obviously...so I don't expect to convince you of anything...
For years the argument was Brady vs. Manning...and I'd ALWAYS take the Manning side though I'm a HUGE Michigan fan and like Brady more in terms of rooting interest...also Manning lost the Heisman to Woodson which was pretty sweet...
I thought for a while on it though and here's what I've got...
1. Manning's got 20,000 more yards (granted in 3 more years than Brees)...I don't see Brees hitting any 6,500 yd seasons any time soon.
2. 160 more TD's...I don't see Brees going for 3 straight 50 td seasons.
3. I look down Manning's career...and though he was injured for one offseason he's started every regular season game...Brees is definitely the more injury prone QB...though not by a ton.
4. I'll take 6'5 and 230 for Manning over 6'0 and 209 for Brees...it's not everything...but Manning has the more prototypical QB build.
5. In a year when Brees was LOVED by everyone as Fantasy #1 QB he had essential the same year as Manning.
6. I do think you have to look at intangibles too. I've honestly never seen Drew Brees make an AMAZING throw...I've seen Manning make throws I don't think many other QB's could make look easy. Even in the Super Bowl...the throw to Clark through 4 defenders was sick. Granted he had 1 pick...but I'll still say while yes...he threw a bad ball there Reggie Wayne did NOTHING to help him out.
7. Manning's had a crap defense behind him most of his career...I'd say his offense is pretty similar to Brees...but Brees had the MUCH better defense behind him in that game.
8. Manning's taken his team to the playoffs 10 of 12 years...Brees 3 times in 9 years. I'll take the consistency.
9. Yes they both have 1 Super Bowl ring...but please don't bring that lame argument up because it means NOTHING...Marino never got one...he's one of the 10 greatest...and Dilfer got one...and he blew. I'd take Manning with 1 ring over Brees with 4...I just trust the guy and see an unflappable winner who can score at will when he's on. I don't see that in Brees.
Bill...would you like to jump in on this...I'm curious what your opinion is.
- Joe -
At least we're talking numbers now. Let's throw out Manning's height and weight which are irrelevant to the argument, as well as each QBs realized-or-not fantasy potential, also irrelevant. (Also, never seeing Brees make an "amazing throw": ?)
Obviously Manning will have the edge in career numbers because of his tenure. But, as you mention, even considering that, Brees would not surpass Manning's yardage/TD numbers. (Amazingly enough, they have the exact same completion percentage...weird.)
What I'm trying to say is, at this moment in time, they are equals. Over the past three years Brees has an edge in numbers. Whether Brees is now just fully entering his prime and Manning has been this good for so long is irrelevant, because, in the case of this SB, with many people picking the Colts solely because of Manning, I begged to differ that Manning had any discernible edge over Brees.
I think the actual game proved my point. But since you'd take Manning with one ring over Brees with four (!), because Manning is someone you "trust" who is a "winner," which in itself in contradictory, there may be no convincing you of reality anyway.
Aw, do I have to get involved? Seriously though, thanks for asking my thoughts Joe. I don't feel passionately enough about Brees vs. Manning to take a sportsradioesque, "My position is right and the other side are morons" type stance, but I have gathered some tidbits in looking to quell my own curiosity, so maybe they will help you as well.
Last 3 seasons:
Completion %
Manning - 65.4, 66.8, 66.8.
Brees - 67.5, 65.0, 70.6.
TD Passes
Manning - 31, 27, 33 (91)
Brees - 28, 34, 34 (96)
INTs
Manning - 14, 12, 16 (42)
Brees - 18, 17, 11 (46)
QB Rating
Manning - 98.0, 95.0, 99.9
Brees - 89.4, 96.2, 109.6(!)
If the pivot point of the argument is that Manning is significantly better than Brees, at this precise moment, or even over the past 3 years, I just can't say that. In every important statistical category, the numbers are indiscernible. And going forward, if I am starting an expansion franchise and somehow can choose one of them, I think it's a coin flip in trying to determine who is going to be better from this point on. I'd keep in mind that on one hand, Brees has had major shoulder surgery...but on the other, he is 3 years younger, and his numbers are trending upward more than Manning's are. But again, they're too close to call. Had I shuffled the stats around and hidden the names of which player got which stats, I don't think we could even tell which stats belong to which guy.
In talking about who's a winner, I'll also submit this...
New Orleans Saints, 1967-2005: 5 10+ win seasons, 237-352-5 record.
New Orleans Saints, 2006-2009: 2 10+ win seasons, 38-26 record, 1 Super Bowl win.
So in summary, Manning is more talented but is incosistent...and Brees is more of a gamer but I never see him play. And neither of them swing as hard as Gary Sheffield.
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