NFL 2016 Playoff Picks

NFC

 

Division Winners:

Redskins

Packers

Panthers

Cardinals 

Wild Cards:

Seahawks

Vikings

AFC

Division Winners:

Patriots

Steelers

Colts

Broncos

Wild Cards:

Jets

Chiefs

 

 

Super Bowl:

Patriots over Seahawks

2014 NFL Over/Under Predictions

You can look back at my past predictions for NFL seasons here, but this year I wanted to try something a little different. 

I'll be predicting season win/loss totals, simply by guessing "over" or "under" the posted 2014 totals, found here.  In addition, I'll be using a sort of confidence points system, noting how much of a hypothetical $100 I would bet amongst the teams.  I have to bet on every team - if I have next to no clue at all, I'll just wimp out by betting $1 - and I must choose 16 "over" and 16 "under." (No "push" predictions allowed.) 

I hope to come back at the end of the regular season to review how many I got right, and whether I made any pretend money. As you can see, I'm putting a lot of my eggs in the "Houston under 8 1/2 wins" basket - I just don't see how they can drastically pull themselves out of their 2013 tailspin.

Team	O/U Line	Prediction	Hypothetical Bet
Arizona Cardinals	7	Under	2
Atlanta Falcons	8	Over	5
Baltimore Ravens	8.5	Under	1
Buffalo Bills	6.5	Over	6
Carolina Panthers	8.5	Over	1
Chicago Bears	8.5	Under	2
Cincinnati Bengals	9	Under	2
Cleveland Browns	6.5	Under	5
Dallas Cowboys	8	Under	1
Denver Broncos	11	Under	1
Detroit Lions	8	Under	3
Green Bay Packers	10	Over	3
Houston Texans	8.5	Under	20
Indianapolis Colts	9	Over	7
Jacksonville Jaguars	4.5	Over	1
Kansas City Chiefs	8	Over	2
Miami Dolphins	7.5	Over	2
Minnesota Vikings	6.5	Under	4
New England Patriots	10.5	Over	6
New Orleans Saints	9.5	Over	1
New York Giants	7	Under	3
New York Jets	6.5	Over	2
Oakland Raiders	5	Under	1
Philadelphia Eagles	9	Over	5
Pittsburgh Steelers	9	Under	1
San Diego Chargers	8	Over	1
San Francisco 49ers	11	Under	4
Seattle Seahawks	11	Under	1
St. Louis Rams	6.5	Over	2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7	Over	2
Tennessee Titans	6.5	Under	1
Washington Redskins	7	Over	2
			100

NFL Playoff Prediction Update

Drew and I both struck out with the 49ers/Patriots combo last week, making these our totals for the 2013-14 playoffs:

Drew 3-7
Bill 6-4

Super Bowl predictions coming this week!

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Drew's Divisional Round picks:

Chargers

Panthers

Patriots

Seahawks

Bill's Divisional Round picks:

Broncos

49ers

Patriots

Seahawks

Last Week

Drew 1-3

Bill 2-2

2011 Giants Preview

I like to play the "win-loss-win-loss" game with the schedule every year, but it doesn't seem like it would work this year. (As if it works other years, right?)

Every time I look at the schedule game-by-game I come up with 8-8, yet the way the preseason went, I just want to throw up my hands and proclaim, "Season's over, 5-11." And that disastrous preseason came after losing Steve Smith, Barry Coefield, and Kevin Boss to free agency. Either way, I can't confidently predict playoffs, and I'm trying to fight a feeling of impending doom that would make me the kind of "Woe is us" fan I have always vowed not to become - even though that would arguably be understandable the way the past three seasons have gone. I wouldn't call it "karma" because that would imply the Giants have done something to deserve the bad luck, but I do have a theory that because 2007 was so incredible - greatest victory in the history of anything, remember - that the football gods feel they need to punish the Giants to balance things out in the grand scheme of things.

As you can already tell, much like my league preview I don't have a cohesive approach here. But what I do have, are a few reasons the Giants could have a good season. In spite of six defensive players lost for the season, I'm selling optimism!

*The Giants have too much talent on paper to go 5-11, or be a team that's out of the hunt early. Sure, they lost some key players, but in a league with so much parity, it takes a special kind of dysfunction to win 5 games or less. You almost have to go out of your way to be that bad.

*The 2007 Giants were not predicted to be a juggernaut before that season began. And this team seems to perform best when expectations are low.

*The first half of the schedule appears to be soft. A good chance for the new players to gel, and time for the injuries that actually didn't put the players out for the season, like those to Prince Amukamara (foot) and Osi Umenyiora (knee), to heal before the competition really ramps up.

*Hey, at least the Giants don't have the Colts' problem: Franchise QB out indefinitely. As irreplacable as Terrell Thomas and Jonathan Goff seemed, neither are Peyton Manning. I believe in Jerry Reese's ability to evaluate talent and build a deep team with capable backups. Aaron Ross and rookie Greg Jones, it's your time to shine.

Now, let's go have ourselves a season!

2011 NFL Preview

In past years, I've released more of a structured season preview, for both the Giants, and the NFL as a whole. This year, I either didn't have the time, the heart, a cohesive enough vision...or all three...to be able to put it all together.

But to do the bare minimum (What do you think of someone who only does the bare minimum?)...here are my playoff picks.

NY Jets

Baltimore

Houston

San Diego

New England (WC)

Pittsburgh (WC)

AFC Championship: NY Jets over New England

Philadelphia

Green Bay

New Orleans

St. Louis

Atlanta (WC)

Dallas (WC)

NFC Championship: Philadelphia over Green Bay

And in my nightmare scenario Super Bowl, which I will title "Unbearabowl XLVI," the Eagles defeat the Jets, as the Eagles' dog killing QB narrowly escapes Jets' defenders, and sideline-tripping strength trainers, to lead the Eagles to their first Lombardi Trophy. Like Alien vs. Predator, the headline for this one: "No matter who wins, we lose."

2010 NFL Preview

So apparently there's a football league that begins play tonight, or something? Yes, at long last, the NFL is back. Various NFL Films treats on Hulu have helped me to pass the long summer, but nothing beats a new season.

This will be my 3rd year of predictions in this space. Here are my previews from 2008, and 2009, for mockery's sake.

I thought quite a bit about how to approach my Super Bowl pick. I almost bogged myself down with too many rules: Don't pick prior participants because that's too easy, don't pick teams that are popular choices among others, and don't pick any teams you have a personal affinity for. But if you impose too many of these limitations, you're left picking the Raiders against someone from the NFC West. So every option is on the table. Rules? THERE ARE NO RULES!!! And away we go...

2010 Predicted NFL Standings

AFC EAST

New England 11-5
NY Jets 10-6*
Miami 9-7
Buffalo 3-13

TOTAL: 33-31 (Last season: 32-32)

Until the Patriots fall flat on their faces (a day I look forward to), I can't go against them. I can't ignore the Jets as a contender either, but expectations are sky high and Mark Sanchez still has a lot to learn - starting of course with how to not throw almost twice as many interceptions than touchdowns. Miami will be good. Buffalo will not.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh 11-5
Baltimore 10-6*
Cincinnati 6-10
Cleveland 5-11

TOTAL: 32-32 (Last season: 33-31)

Roethlisberger's suspension is only 4 games, and Pittsburgh's reasonable early season schedule will help them stay where they want to be. And this team just seems to thrive with lower expectations. The Ravens, like the Patriots, are always around. The Bengals, with Owens and Ochocinco together, are bound to implode. The Browns are the Browns.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis 12-4
Houston 10-6
Tennessee 8-8
Jacksonville 5-11

TOTAL: 35-29 (Last season: 37-27)

Houston closes a lot of ground, but they're still at least a year away from finally dethroning the Colts. Not much going on with the Titans and Jags, but the difference between these two teams is Jeff Fisher's consistency: only 4 losing seasons in 15 as head coach. So even a weak Tennessee team being terrible is unlikely.

AFC WEST

San Diego 9-7
Denver 7-9
Kansas City 6-10
Oakland 6-10

TOTAL: 28-36 (Last season: 30-34)

Not much to get excited about here. Norv Turner's Chargers will again win the division by default, only to exit the playoffs early. Oakland will improve the most, mainly thanks to the addition of the capable Jason Campbell. The Broncos and Chiefs are just kind of, eh, "there."

----------------------

NFC EAST

NY Giants 11-5
Dallas 11-5*
Philadelphia 10-6
Washington 8-8

TOTAL: 40-24 (Last season: 34-30)

A couple weeks ago, I talked about the reasons why the Giants should be better, even agreeing with Peter King in the process. They're healthy - the biggest acquisition in the NFL might have been the Giants getting Kenny Phillips back from injury - they added more depth to the defensive line, they replaced ineffective defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan with Perry Fewell, and a mostly young offense that was never the problem, is still intact. It will be a close race, but they'll win the NFC East over Dallas and Philadelphia, who won't look much like Super Bowl contenders for many weeks at a time, but will hang around. In Washington, bringing in Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan to run things, replacing dum dum Vinny Cerrato and poor, overmatched Jim Zorn, is worth at least 4 wins alone. And McNabb is an upgrade over Campbell, though not as much as people might think. The Redskins will be a .500 team, with or without Haynesworth.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay 11-5
Minnesota 10-6*
Detroit 7-9
Chicago 4-12

TOTAL: 32-32 (Last season: 32-32)

I see Aaron Rodgers taking another step forward, this time to MVP status. While I see the Vikings taking a slight step backward. This will be the year Favre doesn't start all 16 games. I have a couple friends who are Lions fans, and I think they'd be delighted to see their team go 7-9, especially if it contains shows of promise by their young core. 4-12 for the Bears might be harsh, but if I can alter a quote from Joakim Noah..."What, you think Chicago's cool? What's so good about Chicago?"

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans 12-4
Atlanta 10-6
Carolina 8-8
Tampa Bay 4-12

TOTAL: 34-30 (Last season: 33-31)

I don't see any reason why the Saints can't be dominant again this year. The Falcons will again be tough, but again just miss the playoffs. Carolina just screams out "mediocre," and the Bucs are still years from being competitive.

NFC WEST

San Francisco 7-9
Arizona 6-10
Seattle 6-10
St. Louis 3-13

TOTAL: 22-42 (Last season: 24-40)

What can be said about this division that hasn't already been said about a dirty sidewalk in Calcutta?

PLAYOFFS!???

Wild Card Round:
Patriots over Ravens
Jets over Chargers
Packers over Vikings
Cowboys over 49ers

Divisional Round:
Colts over Patriots
Steelers over Jets
Giants over Cowboys
Saints over Packers

Championship Round:
Giants over Saints
Steelers over Colts

Super Bowl:
Giants over Steelers. That's right, I'm picking the Giants. Forget cautious optimism, forget not wanting to jinx your team, and forget the collapse of 2009. Do not be afraid to love again! Wooooo! And it's going to be all the sweeter when this comes true.

Finally, last season I think I said it well enough that it doesn't need changing, so I'll just repaste...

*And one final disclaimer: Reason # 13,661 that the NFL is so awesome, is that the landscape changes so quickly, and week-to-week it is like looking into a kaleidoscope. So, I fully expect that by week 2, these picks will look as dated as bellbottoms, long sideburns, or the goatee. (2010 add: or "Jersey Shore" references.)

Prediction Season!

It's a special time of year. The time when all kinds of prognosticators, with varying levels of direct access to the NFL, make bad predictions for the upcoming season - myself included. I'll have mine posted sometime before the start of the season. But for now I wanted to point out that Peter King picks the Giants (video embedded in Ross Tucker's column, for some reason) to win the NFC East. This terrifies me. And the fact that he puts together a solid argument why, terrifies me even more. But I'll set aside the obvious - that it's Peter King making the prediction, which means you should lean...no, run...in the other direction.

In 2007, the Giants thrived while little was expected of them. Coming into that season, they were seemingly a team in disarray, with coach Tom Coughlin on the hot seat. Of course, we all know what happened after that - only the greatest triumph in the history of organized team sports. On the other hand, in 2008 and 2009, they came in heavily favored, only to collapse.

Right now I have no clue what kind of Giants we'll see in 2010. But I'll try to keep my expectations low.

The fun of saving draft day predictions

Mel Kiper Jr., on draft day 2007:

"JaMarcus Russell's going to immediately energize that Raider nation, that fan base, that football team, on the practice field, in that locker room. Three years from now, you could be looking at a guy who's certainly one of the elite top 5 quarterbacks in this league."

"And mobility's a little underrated."

"The skill level that he has is certainly John Elway-like."

That, or he's a lazy, bloated bust who's going to be cut in May of 2010...

(Photo courtesy of Kissing Suzy Kolber)

Ridiculously early 2010 NFL schedule "win-loss" game

What fun would the 2010 schedule's release be without predicting a team's finishing record 4 1/2 months before the first game is played?

Before I get to the Giants, I'd like to clear up a couple myths about the NFL schedule. I have a feeling the percentage of fans who believe these is small - maybe 15-20% of fans - but I've heard both just within the past couple days so for what it's worth, let's help a few people here and there...

Myth 1: "Team X will have a tough year because they're playing a 1st place schedule."

There was a time when the "first place schedule" was a lot more meaningful, but in today's 8-division, 32-team NFL, it's a matter of two games. Which brings me to...

Myth 2: "Oh, Jets vs. Steelers, they scheduled that because of the Santonio Holmes trade."

Not only do just two games vary due to finishing order in the 16-game NFL schedule, but the NFL has control over exactly none of them. Here is how a team's schedule is put together:

*6 Division games (2 against each of 3 in-division opponents).
*4 Out of division, conference games (1 against each of 4 "dance partners" in that other division...for example, this year everyone in the NFC East plays everyone in the NFC North. Rotates every 3 years.)
*4 Out of conference games (again, 1 against each of 4 "dance partners"...this year, the NFC East plays the AFC South. Rotates every 4 years.)
*2 based on division finishing order, vs. in-conference team who finished in the same spot. The Giants finished third in the NFC East last season, so they'll get the third place team from the NFC West (Seattle), and the third place team from the NFC South (Carolina)

And there's your 16 games, folks! If I had to bet, I'd say all of my 4 or 5 readers already knew that, in which case this part was a waste of time. In any event, on we go to the wacky, meaningless, premature predictions! I'm basing the picks on current rosters, pre-NFL draft.

2010 Giants Regular Season Schedule:

Sept. 12 CAROLINA - W
Sept. 19 at Indianapolis - L
Sept. 26 TENNESSEE - W
Oct. 3 CHICAGO - W
Oct. 10 at Houston - L
Oct. 17 DETROIT - W
Oct. 25 (Mon.) at Dallas - W
Oct. 31 BYE
Nov. 7 at Seattle - W
Nov. 14 DALLAS W
Nov. 21 at Philadelphia - L
Nov. 28 JACKSONVILLE - W
Dec. 5 WASHINGTON- W
Dec. 12 at Minnesota - L
Dec. 19 PHILADELPHIA - L
Dec. 26 at Green Bay - L
Jan. 2 at Washington - L

So I've got 9-7, with another late season collapse (this time based more on schedule difficulty, contrasted with ought-nine when it was due to completely giving up on tackling, covering, and in general, life). The NFC East will be challenging as always, so 3-3 in-division seems about right. The split with Washington is due to them being improved, the sweep of Dallas is due to owning them in recent years (and the fact that I really dislike Dallas), and being swept by the Eagles is due to the continual nightmare of seeing DeSean Jackson at least 10 yards behind any member of the Giants' inept secondary, now led by inept Antrel Rolle. Playing Seattle and Carolina will help matters (hooray for the third place schedule, ironic isn't it?), though drawing the NFC North and AFC South makes for a tough group of opponents, save for the Lions and Bears.

And lacking here were adjustments for something you see from just about every team in a given season: winning a couple games they should have lost, and losing a couple they should have won. Upsets will happen. I just don't know where, so I don't believe in picking them here, as I feel that would be like a referee making one bad call, then later another bad call against the other team to make up for the first bad call.

Now all that's left is to actually play the games.

2009 NFL Predictions, Revisited

So I had Saints + 5 1/2, and the under. Let's get that out of the way, as it takes a little of the sting off of my mediocre predictions from September. And let me also say that while my picks were lame, they weren't Peter King bad. (Sure, anything can happen, but the Bears in the Super Bowl? The Bears???)

But saying I'm better than Peter King would be like pushing the weakest kid in school in the mud. Everybody knows you basically go in the exact opposite direction of whatever Peter King says. Let's look at how I did...(Predicted records in parenthesis.)

AFC EAST

New England 10-6 (12-4)
NY Jets 9-7* (9-7)
Miami 7-9 (8-8)
Buffalo 6-10 (8-8)

TOTAL: 32-32 (37-27)

GRADE: B+. Got the order and Jets' record right, but overestimated overall division strength. And bonus points for predicting the Dolphins' backslide after a cinderella 2008. As for the Bills, they wish they could have a .500 season!


AFC NORTH

Cincinnati 10-6 (6-10)
Baltimore 9-7* (10-6*)
Pittsburgh 9-7 (11-5)
Cleveland 5-11 (5-11)

TOTAL: 33-31 (32-32)

GRADE: C+. Close on division record. Predicted the Steelers' struggles. Said the Browns would be 5-11, but really, how hard is that? On the other hand, I sure didn't see the Bengals coming.


AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis 14-2 (10-6*)
Tennessee 8-8 (11-5)
Houston 8-8 (7-9)
Jacksonville 7-9 (8-8)

TOTAL: 37-27 (36-28)

GRADE: C. The Titans got red hot and almost made the playoff run I thought they would, but it was too little, too late. The Colts didn't take the moderate slide I expected. But, again I was close on overall division strength.


AFC WEST

San Diego 13-3 (9-7)
Denver 8-8 (5-11)
Oakland 5-11 (3-13)
Kansas City 4-12 (4-12)

TOTAL: 30-34 (22-42)

GRADE: C-. Almost had the order right, and was close on KC and Oakland. But when it comes to those teams, who cares? I'll avoid giving myself a "D" by virtue of saying the Chargers would again make a quick playoff exit in spite of winning their division easily.

----------------------

NFC EAST

Dallas 11-5 (11-5)
Philadelphia 11-5* (11-5*)
NY Giants 8-8 (11-5*)
Washington 4-12 (8-8)

TOTAL: 34-30 (41-23)

GRADE: C. This was looking like the best division in the league, as I predicted, but that fell apart in December thanks mostly to the Giants. Still, I hit the Cowboys' and Eagles' 11 win records and playoff appearances.


NFC NORTH

Green Bay 11-5 (11-5)
Minnesota 12-4 (9-7)
Chicago 7-9 (7-9)
Detroit 2-14 (4-12)

TOTAL: 32-32 (31-33)

GRADE: B. I've got to hand it to the ol' Gunslinger on a fine regular season. I was correct on Green Bay, and Chicago (take that Peter King, I just put your retainer on top of the chalkboard where you can't reach it), and was close on the Lions and total division record.


NFC SOUTH

New Orleans 13-3 (11-5)
Atlanta 9-7 (10-6)
Carolina 8-8 (10-6)
Tampa Bay 3-13 (5-11)

TOTAL: 33-31 (36-28)

GRADE: B-. Finishing order is essentially correct. And Atlanta took that projected, Miami-like step back. The Bucs were predictably awful, and Saints predictably good. But I sure didn't have the Saints winning it all.


NFC WEST

Arizona 10-6 (7-9)
San Francisco 8-8 (5-11)
Seattle 5-11 (5-11)
St. Louis 1-15 (5-11)

TOTAL: 24-40 (22-42)

GRADE: C. Predicted Arizona would win the division. (Woo, that was hard.) Pinpointed this would be again the worst division in the NFL. (Woo, hard again, really went out on a limb.) I think even the Matt Leinart-led Cardinals can continue to win this slop with their eyes closed for years to come.

So in general, a very average set of regular season predictions. Let's see how I did in the...

PLAYOFFS!???

AFC: 4 of 6 teams correct - Patriots, Ravens, Colts, Chargers.
NFC: 4 of 6 teams correct - Cowboys, Eagles, Packers, Saints.

Preseason Super Bowl prediction of Titans vs. Packers:
It didn't come close, but I'm not completely embarrassed. For a while the Titans were the hottest team in the league, and the Packers had a nice year. (And if they hadn't been hurt by a couple bad calls in their wild card game, who knows, they could have gone much farther.)

At least I didn't pick the Bears.

Super Bowl pick

If you're just joining us, I'm 3-1 ATS (Against the Spread, for you non-gambling perverts) in the past 4 Super Bowls. I had Pittsburgh - 3 1/2 over Seattle in 2005-06. I was correct in '07, taking the Colts -9 1/2. I was right two years ago taking the Giants +14 against the Patriots. (Have I mentioned lately that the Giants won the Super Bowl?) And I was wrong last year in taking Pittsburgh -7 over Arizona. So, we're hoping to get back on the right (Super) track, and I think the right play here is Saints, + 5 1/2.

I think the Colts will win the game, and I wouldn't be surprised if they covered the spread too. But on paper, we haven't had a Super Bowl this evenly matched in a while, and I just think 5 1/2 is a good value. Though it's only a slight lean. Also, in a contrarian play, I like "under" the posted total of 57. Wacky things happen in Super Bowls, so I don't think a shootout is quite the lock it seems to be.

On a personal note, I'll be feeling the most relaxed I've felt going into a Super Bowl in 7 years, as this is the first time since 2002-03's Bucs-Raiders matchup in which I don't really have a dog in the fight. No, I'm not a Panthers, Eagles, Colts, Giants, and Steelers fan; my amount of desire of course varied game-to-game on which team I wanted to see win. But I had my reasons each time.

So, this one should just be fun to watch, and I think of all 32 teams, it's the perfect matchup if you don't care who wins either. Though if I had to choose, I'd go for the Colts, as I'd like to see Manning take his rightful place among the greatest quarterbacks of all-time.

Enjoy the game, and we'll see what happens!

2009 NFL Preview

Time again to roll out an NFL season preview! Here is how I did last season.

2009 Predicted NFL Standings

AFC EAST

New England 12-4
NY Jets 9-7
Miami 8-8
Buffalo 8-8

TOTAL: 37-27 (Last season: 38-26)

Tom Brady is back - and while New England is no longer allowed to cheat, they'll resume dominance of the division. Miami took a big jump last year, and whenever a team takes a meteoric, unexpected rise in one season, they fall back to earth the next. (I base this on absolutely no tangible data.) Mark Sanchez will throw less interceptions than Brett Favre for the Jets, but they still don't have a complete team to challenge for the title. Buffalo is better with Terrell Owens, who will behave himself, but they've got a long way to go as well.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh 11-5
Baltimore 10-6*
Cincinnati 6-10
Cleveland 5-11

TOTAL: 32-32 (Last season: 31-32-1)

The Steelers and Ravens will both be slightly down this year, but still leaps and bounds above the Bengals and Browns. On paper, there seems to be no reason the Steelers can't repeat. But, after their Super Bowl XL triumph they struggled a bit, and I think we could see the same thing in 2009.

AFC SOUTH

Tennessee 11-5
Indianapolis 10-6*
Jacksonville 8-8
Houston 7-9

TOTAL: 36-28 (Last season: 38-26)

The Jaguars are improved, but I still don't see them as reaching the level of the Titans or Colts. The Colts take a step backward without their coach and leader, Tony Dungy. But any team led by a healthy Peyton Manning has a pretty high "floor" for wins in a season. The Texans are nothing special besides Andre Johnson, but they will be competitive.

AFC WEST

San Diego 9-7
Denver 5-11
Kansas City 5-11
Oakland 3-13

TOTAL: 22-42 (Last season: 23-41)

I don't see much changing from last season here. San Diego will again win by default, over two teams in transition and a third that resembles the baker on Sesame Street falling down a flight of steps while carrying 10 chocolate cakes (the legendary Jim Henson - here's the video, watch the last 15 seconds, it's totally worth it.).

----------------------

NFC EAST

Dallas 11-5
NY Giants 11-5*
Philadelphia 11-5*
Washington 8-8

TOTAL: 41-23 (Last season: 38-25-1)

This should again be the best division in the NFL. And again the NFC East has been blessed with an easy "dance partner," cycling with the AFC West. (Last year they had the NFC West.) Other than Washington at San Diego in week 17, this could be clean 16 game sweep. But, you never know and that's what makes the NFL great; any team can beat any other team in one game. It's a cop-out that I'm not picking a clear division winner, I really can't decide...but I'm confident that the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles will all make the playoffs, regardless of division winner.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay 11-5
Minnesota 9-7
Chicago 7-9
Detroit 4-12

TOTAL: 30-34 (Last season: 25-39)

The Packers quietly continue to build around Aaron Rodgers and will have a solid season. Adrian Peterson leads the NFL in rushing, but the Vikings are sabotaged by the Gunslinger. The Bears are mediocre, and the Lions, well...they can't get any worse than last year. This season they'll stumble into 4 wins and lose out on the first draft pick.

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans 11-5
Carolina 10-6
Atlanta 10-6
Tampa Bay 5-11

TOTAL: 36-28 (Last season: 40-24)

The Saints put on a show, but I don't see them doing anything in playoffs. Carolina is tough to stop on the ground, but Steve Smith may start to show his age. The Falcons become another example of a team that takes a big jump then regresses a bit the following season (again, based on no data). The Bucs continue their collapse from last season, when they lost their last four games.

NFC WEST

Arizona 7-9
Seattle 5-11
San Francisco 5-11
St. Louis 5-11

TOTAL: 22-42 (Last season: 22-42)

These teams went 10-30 outside this division last season and don't look any more palatable this season. So I'll give 7 wins to my projected NFC West winner, Arizona - 6 of which will come by getting 2 apiece against Seattle, San Francisco, and St. Louis. Last season before their improbable run to the Super Bowl, the Cardinals were 6-0 against the NFC West; but 3-7 against actual NFL teams. I believe an easy road to the playoffs is the best way to prepare for a deep postseason run, and the Cardinals will again have that luxury.

PLAYOFFS!???

Wild Card Round:
Steelers over Colts (Steelers still too physical for Colts, especially at home)
Ravens over Chargers
Giants over Saints
Cardinals over Eagles (A 7-9 team hosts a playoff game against an 11-5 team...the NFL still refuses to fix the seeding/home game awarding system. McNabb and Reid fail again, Vick era begins.)

Divisional Round:
Patriots over Steelers
Titans over Ravens
Packers over Cardinals
Giants over Cowboys (Romo still doesn't win a playoff game, even after a 1st round bye.)

Championship Round:
Titans over Patriots (Belichick drowns his sorrows by again stealing another man's wife.)
Packers over Giants (Lack of game breaking WR finally catches up to Giants.)

Super Bowl:
Titans over Packers (Jeff Fisher, currently the longest tenured and perhaps best coach in the league, finally wins a championship.)

*And one final disclaimer: Reason # 13,661 that the NFL is so awesome, is that the landscape changes so quickly, and week-to-week it is like looking into a kaleidoscope. So, I fully expect that by week 2, these picks will look as dated as bellbottoms, long sideburns, or the goatee.

Super Bowl Prediction

In the week and a half or so since the Championship round, I was feeling pretty nervous about this game. But I’m finally ready to take a stand. Give me the Steelers. And if you’re a point spread gambler…if I have to lay the 7 points, I’ll do it. Also, take the “over.”

Last week, I compared the pregame scenario of this Super Bowl XLIII, to that of Super Bowl XIV. A 9-7 team that got hot at the right time, with an ex-Steelers coordinator on their staff, facing a dominant Steelers team, in a game that was closer than it looked on paper. However, I see this game playing out more like Super Bowl XIX.

In Super Bowl XIX, the Miami Dolphins faced the San Francisco 49ers. Miami started the game well, but after a while, the one-dimensional Dolphins were exposed, and the well-balanced 49ers took full command of the game. The final score: 49ers 38, Dolphins 16. At one point late in the game, 49ers offensive lineman Jesse Sapolu turned to a sideline camera and said something like, “They came here to see an offense…and the wrong one showed up.” I see the Steelers’ offense showing more firepower than they are given credit for, and the Steelers’ defense forcing Kurt Warner into several costly mistakes.

Last year, I picked the Patriots, and hoped I'd be wrong. This year, I pick the Steelers, and hope I'll be right. My pick for this one will be the same score of Super Bowl XIX, plus an extra TD for Arizona to account for Larry Fitzgerald’s awesomeness. Final score: Steelers 38, Cardinals 23.

(Plus Czabe picks the Steelers, so that makes me feel better. Though he compares this one more to Super Bowl XXXV, Giants vs. Ravens.)

2008 NFL Season in Review (and predictions revisited)

What would a prediction be without revisiting it when it can truly be evaluated? Not doing so would be like evaluating a draft class before they ever take the field, and not doing it at the end of the season, or even the season after. Which you actually never see. Anyway, here we go! We'll start with the final season standings, with my predictions in parenthesis. And I'll grade my predictions for each division.

AFC

EAST

Dolphins 11-5 (7-9)
Patriots 11-5 (11-5)
Jets 9-7 (10-6)
Bills 7-9 (8-8)

TOTAL: 38-26 (36-28)

GRADE: A. I don't think anyone predicted the Dolphins would improve the way they did. I believe Chad Pennington is the MVP. The Jets deserved what they got this season (Brett Favre) for dumping Chad. Other than Miami, my predictions were all within one game of actual records. And I successfully tabbed this to be a strong division.

NORTH

Steelers 12-4 (11-5)
*Ravens 11-5 (5-11)
Bengals 4-11-1 (6-10)
Browns 4-12 (9-7)

TOTAL: 31-32-1 (31-33)

GRADE: C+. Sure, I got it right with the Steelers, but they are there every year. Really a model organization. But boy did I miss on the Ravens. And can someone remind me why I thought the Browns would be good? The only saving grace here was that I was so close on overall division strength - a mere 1/2 game away. Also I correctly predicted the Bengals would be a mess, but that was easy too.

SOUTH

Titans 13-3 (6-10)
*Colts 12-4 (12-4)
Texans 8-8 (7-9)
Jaguars 5-11 (11-5)

TOTAL: 38-26 (36-28)

GRADE: C-. The Colts I nailed, but again, model organization, and they are good every year (though it actually didn't start out looking that way, with the slow start and Manning's knee surgeries.) I never saw the Titans coming, and missed big on the Jags - then again, mostly everyone else did too. And again I saved a little face by forecasting overall division strength.

WEST

Chargers 8-8 (10-6)
Broncos 8-8 (7-9)
Raiders 5-11 (7-9)
Chiefs 2-14 (6-10)
TOTAL: 23-41 (30-34)

GRADE: C. I don't take much solace in correctly predicting the finishing order of all these scrub teams. I didn't totally whiff by a mile, but didn't see anything particularly special either. This division doesn't deserve any more of my time than it already got, so let's move to the NFC now...

NFC

EAST

Giants 12-4 (10-6)
*Eagles 9-6-1 (10-6)
Cowboys 9-7 (11-5)
Redskins 8-8 (7-9)

TOTAL: 38-25-1 (38-26)

GRADE: A+. Ding ding ding ding! I hit the Giants and Eagles going to the playoffs, the overall division record within 1/2 game, and every team's record within 2 games. The only thing I missed was the Cowboys not going to the playoffs...but hey, I'm glad to be wrong about that.

NORTH

Vikings 10-6 (10-6)
Bears 9-7 (5-11)
Packers 6-10 (10-6)
Lions 0-16 (8-8)

TOTAL: 25-39 (33-31)

GRADE: D. Good on the Vikings, off on everyone else. Special attention goes to the Lions going 0-16, as I may not get the chance to mention it elsewhere. How awesome is that?

SOUTH

Panthers 12-4 (10-6)
*Falcons 11-5 (4-12)
Buccaneers 9-7 (9-7)
Saints 8-8 (9-7)

TOTAL: 40-24 (32-32)

GRADE: B-. Got the division winner, and very close on 3 of the 4 teams overall. But what a season for the Falcons. Matt Ryan gives hope to any future team hoping to draft a QB high in the first round, but not feel like they are relegated to "rebuilding" for 2 or 3 years with a bad record. (So did Joe Flacco in Baltimore for that matter.)

WEST

Cardinals 9-7 (6-10)
49ers 7-9 (3-13)
Seahawks 4-12 (6-10)
Rams 2-14 (5-11)

TOTAL: 22-42 (20-44)

GRADE: Incomplete. Everything I said about the AFC West not deserving my attention applies even more to this group. What a terrible, worthless bunch of teams. And if not for one particular team quitting in December and losing to both the 49ers and Seahawks, this division would have matched my predicted total record. But, I correctly identified this as the worst division ever, and gave the Cardinals a tie for 1st place, so there you go.

PLAYOFFS!???

AFC: 3 of 6 teams correct - Steelers, Colts, Chargers.
NFC: 4 of 6 teams correct - Giants, Eagles, Vikings, Panthers (and a bonus 1/2 point for the Cardinals).

Preseason Super Bowl Prediction of Giants vs. Colts

Alive and well...