2010 NFL Preview

So apparently there's a football league that begins play tonight, or something? Yes, at long last, the NFL is back. Various NFL Films treats on Hulu have helped me to pass the long summer, but nothing beats a new season.

This will be my 3rd year of predictions in this space. Here are my previews from 2008, and 2009, for mockery's sake.

I thought quite a bit about how to approach my Super Bowl pick. I almost bogged myself down with too many rules: Don't pick prior participants because that's too easy, don't pick teams that are popular choices among others, and don't pick any teams you have a personal affinity for. But if you impose too many of these limitations, you're left picking the Raiders against someone from the NFC West. So every option is on the table. Rules? THERE ARE NO RULES!!! And away we go...

2010 Predicted NFL Standings

AFC EAST

New England 11-5
NY Jets 10-6*
Miami 9-7
Buffalo 3-13

TOTAL: 33-31 (Last season: 32-32)

Until the Patriots fall flat on their faces (a day I look forward to), I can't go against them. I can't ignore the Jets as a contender either, but expectations are sky high and Mark Sanchez still has a lot to learn - starting of course with how to not throw almost twice as many interceptions than touchdowns. Miami will be good. Buffalo will not.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh 11-5
Baltimore 10-6*
Cincinnati 6-10
Cleveland 5-11

TOTAL: 32-32 (Last season: 33-31)

Roethlisberger's suspension is only 4 games, and Pittsburgh's reasonable early season schedule will help them stay where they want to be. And this team just seems to thrive with lower expectations. The Ravens, like the Patriots, are always around. The Bengals, with Owens and Ochocinco together, are bound to implode. The Browns are the Browns.

AFC SOUTH

Indianapolis 12-4
Houston 10-6
Tennessee 8-8
Jacksonville 5-11

TOTAL: 35-29 (Last season: 37-27)

Houston closes a lot of ground, but they're still at least a year away from finally dethroning the Colts. Not much going on with the Titans and Jags, but the difference between these two teams is Jeff Fisher's consistency: only 4 losing seasons in 15 as head coach. So even a weak Tennessee team being terrible is unlikely.

AFC WEST

San Diego 9-7
Denver 7-9
Kansas City 6-10
Oakland 6-10

TOTAL: 28-36 (Last season: 30-34)

Not much to get excited about here. Norv Turner's Chargers will again win the division by default, only to exit the playoffs early. Oakland will improve the most, mainly thanks to the addition of the capable Jason Campbell. The Broncos and Chiefs are just kind of, eh, "there."

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NFC EAST

NY Giants 11-5
Dallas 11-5*
Philadelphia 10-6
Washington 8-8

TOTAL: 40-24 (Last season: 34-30)

A couple weeks ago, I talked about the reasons why the Giants should be better, even agreeing with Peter King in the process. They're healthy - the biggest acquisition in the NFL might have been the Giants getting Kenny Phillips back from injury - they added more depth to the defensive line, they replaced ineffective defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan with Perry Fewell, and a mostly young offense that was never the problem, is still intact. It will be a close race, but they'll win the NFC East over Dallas and Philadelphia, who won't look much like Super Bowl contenders for many weeks at a time, but will hang around. In Washington, bringing in Bruce Allen and Mike Shanahan to run things, replacing dum dum Vinny Cerrato and poor, overmatched Jim Zorn, is worth at least 4 wins alone. And McNabb is an upgrade over Campbell, though not as much as people might think. The Redskins will be a .500 team, with or without Haynesworth.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay 11-5
Minnesota 10-6*
Detroit 7-9
Chicago 4-12

TOTAL: 32-32 (Last season: 32-32)

I see Aaron Rodgers taking another step forward, this time to MVP status. While I see the Vikings taking a slight step backward. This will be the year Favre doesn't start all 16 games. I have a couple friends who are Lions fans, and I think they'd be delighted to see their team go 7-9, especially if it contains shows of promise by their young core. 4-12 for the Bears might be harsh, but if I can alter a quote from Joakim Noah..."What, you think Chicago's cool? What's so good about Chicago?"

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans 12-4
Atlanta 10-6
Carolina 8-8
Tampa Bay 4-12

TOTAL: 34-30 (Last season: 33-31)

I don't see any reason why the Saints can't be dominant again this year. The Falcons will again be tough, but again just miss the playoffs. Carolina just screams out "mediocre," and the Bucs are still years from being competitive.

NFC WEST

San Francisco 7-9
Arizona 6-10
Seattle 6-10
St. Louis 3-13

TOTAL: 22-42 (Last season: 24-40)

What can be said about this division that hasn't already been said about a dirty sidewalk in Calcutta?

PLAYOFFS!???

Wild Card Round:
Patriots over Ravens
Jets over Chargers
Packers over Vikings
Cowboys over 49ers

Divisional Round:
Colts over Patriots
Steelers over Jets
Giants over Cowboys
Saints over Packers

Championship Round:
Giants over Saints
Steelers over Colts

Super Bowl:
Giants over Steelers. That's right, I'm picking the Giants. Forget cautious optimism, forget not wanting to jinx your team, and forget the collapse of 2009. Do not be afraid to love again! Wooooo! And it's going to be all the sweeter when this comes true.

Finally, last season I think I said it well enough that it doesn't need changing, so I'll just repaste...

*And one final disclaimer: Reason # 13,661 that the NFL is so awesome, is that the landscape changes so quickly, and week-to-week it is like looking into a kaleidoscope. So, I fully expect that by week 2, these picks will look as dated as bellbottoms, long sideburns, or the goatee. (2010 add: or "Jersey Shore" references.)