2014 NFL Over/Under Predictions

You can look back at my past predictions for NFL seasons here, but this year I wanted to try something a little different. 

I'll be predicting season win/loss totals, simply by guessing "over" or "under" the posted 2014 totals, found here.  In addition, I'll be using a sort of confidence points system, noting how much of a hypothetical $100 I would bet amongst the teams.  I have to bet on every team - if I have next to no clue at all, I'll just wimp out by betting $1 - and I must choose 16 "over" and 16 "under." (No "push" predictions allowed.) 

I hope to come back at the end of the regular season to review how many I got right, and whether I made any pretend money. As you can see, I'm putting a lot of my eggs in the "Houston under 8 1/2 wins" basket - I just don't see how they can drastically pull themselves out of their 2013 tailspin.

Team	O/U Line	Prediction	Hypothetical Bet
Arizona Cardinals	7	Under	2
Atlanta Falcons	8	Over	5
Baltimore Ravens	8.5	Under	1
Buffalo Bills	6.5	Over	6
Carolina Panthers	8.5	Over	1
Chicago Bears	8.5	Under	2
Cincinnati Bengals	9	Under	2
Cleveland Browns	6.5	Under	5
Dallas Cowboys	8	Under	1
Denver Broncos	11	Under	1
Detroit Lions	8	Under	3
Green Bay Packers	10	Over	3
Houston Texans	8.5	Under	20
Indianapolis Colts	9	Over	7
Jacksonville Jaguars	4.5	Over	1
Kansas City Chiefs	8	Over	2
Miami Dolphins	7.5	Over	2
Minnesota Vikings	6.5	Under	4
New England Patriots	10.5	Over	6
New Orleans Saints	9.5	Over	1
New York Giants	7	Under	3
New York Jets	6.5	Over	2
Oakland Raiders	5	Under	1
Philadelphia Eagles	9	Over	5
Pittsburgh Steelers	9	Under	1
San Diego Chargers	8	Over	1
San Francisco 49ers	11	Under	4
Seattle Seahawks	11	Under	1
St. Louis Rams	6.5	Over	2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7	Over	2
Tennessee Titans	6.5	Under	1
Washington Redskins	7	Over	2
			100

This just in: Pro athletes are fast

I may have said this before, but this blog's been here for 6 years now so if I'm repeating myself, please bear with me...

If you would like to know how fast Olympic sprinters or NFL players are, try running a 100-meter or 40-yard dash, and compare your times to theirs.  This works even better if you fancy yourself pretty speedy in your own right.  You'll see just how wide the gap really is. 

And when considering how slow the biggest NFL offensive and defensive linemen are, just remember that they only look that slow compared to the rest of the blazingly fast players on the field. 

On this year's Super Bowl commercials

A couple Super Bowl commercials were particularly meaningful to me, so wanted to mention them here.  

1) Honda - Bruce Willis/Hugfest

You have to understand first, that for me, combining Bruce Willis and Honda into one concept, would be like Neil Peart doing an ad for loose-fitting, long-sleeved, light colored t-shirts.  (I avoid the sun at all costs, if you didn't know.)  Or Christopher Nolan directing a movie about the history of the Giants.  This film would also be narrated by WWE's Damien Sandow, if I'm not asking too much.  Anyway, I love Bruce Willis, I love Honda, and the message to hug people you love, was delivered with the perfect amount of humor balanced with sincerity.  

2) Budweiser - Puppy Love

A puppy and a horse are buddies - what else do I need?  Good for Budweiser, and this is coming from a guy who doesn't drink.  

I actually had a friend say something like, "What's with all these heartfelt commercials?  I just want silly stuff."  I think the right response to that comment is...Would you rather go back to the hack tropes we usually see?  Head and groin trauma? Talking babies and animals, and other ridiculous premises?  Not to mention the regular amount vulgarity you get these days.

I'd say this year, in general, was a step in a most welcome direction.  Drew and I plan on doing a Sports Limelight episode on advertising sometime in the near future, but for now I'll just add that one of the main things I'm looking for in a commercial, is to be moved or inspired in some way.  Funny is good, of course, but it isn't easy to pull off and so often misses the mark.  (Credit where it's due, I think Geico has by far the highest "humor percentage" of any company I've seen.)   I think the lack of creative, surprising humor in most commercials might be due to the inevitable urge to appeal to the lowest common denominator of viewer, but that's just speculation.

NFL Playoff Prediction Update

Drew and I both struck out with the 49ers/Patriots combo last week, making these our totals for the 2013-14 playoffs:

Drew 3-7
Bill 6-4

Super Bowl predictions coming this week!

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Drew's Divisional Round picks:

Chargers

Panthers

Patriots

Seahawks

Bill's Divisional Round picks:

Broncos

49ers

Patriots

Seahawks

Last Week

Drew 1-3

Bill 2-2

On Going Double-Contrarian

There are certain things in life that become popular enough, that you want to push back against them.  For instance, I have a friend who grew up in the middle of Dallas Cowboys country, and became a Redskins fan to be different.  

Allow me to introduce you then to the concept of going double-contrarian.  On a not-yet-released Sports Limelight episode that Drew and I pre-recorded (nod to George Carlin here - "When else are you going to pre-record it, afterwards!?"), we discuss things we like, which aren't the most popular amongst our peers, mainly in sports and music.  I ask Drew if he's ever gone the double-contrarian route in liking something, and I give the example of Tim Tebow.  Tebow's meteoric rise led to a group of haters pushing back against what they deemed to be an inordinate amount of hype.  (Let's put aside the off-field agenda of these folks who were anti-Tebow for a different reason; I am referring strictly to football.)  However, in a double-contrarian play, I therefore became a big Tebow fan, to push back against the Tebow haters. 

Another example, from South Park, was when Stan asked the three goth kids to join his dance troop.  The first two refused, citing how "conformist" it would be to join a dance troop...then the third says that he's such a non-conformist, that he won't conform with the first two, and will join the dance troop.  So I guess I'm often that third goth kid.  

This year, I've found another place where I feel good about going double-contrarian: Christmas music.  Like comedians doing bits about airline food, or the old workplace joke that the ladies of the staff often win the office football pool by choosing teams at random, I think the whole "whining that Christmas music is played too early" thing is so played out, that it's downright hackneyed.  So I say, give me Christmas music all year 'round!  

Want to see the most annoying ad in the world?

The above ad puts together two of the worst seemingly new Internet advertising tactics there are.  In fact, it would have hit the trifecta had it also contained a ridiculous animated .gif of someone dancing or making a silly face.  Alas, we'll just have to live with these first two...

1) "Trainers hate her."  I see variations of this all the time now, whether it's an ad selling financial services ("Credit card companies hate him."), or whatever.  It's a variation of the "Good cop, Bad cop" game..."Those trainers are jerks!  But not us - So it's you and us versus the mean, hateful trainers!  Why they can't just learn to love her, we'll never know..."

2) "...this weird trick..."  It's WEIRD.  If you only understand one thing about this trick, let it be that.  Just take all your preconceived notions about what is a normal or traditional trick and be prepared to throw them out the window, because things are about to get WEIRD.  Also, it's a "trick" so you won't have to work very hard, kinda like a shortcut.  

Murphy's Law - Self-flushing toilet edition

When you're at a toilet with a flushing sensor, having done your business, it will flush several extra times while you are still standing there...then once more while you are leaving the stall.

When you're entering a stall with a flushing sensor, you will find someone else's waste still sitting in the toilet, the flushing mechanism not having flushed at all, when the other person was in there.

Q: What's wrong with the Giants? (A: How much time do you have?)

The Giants are 0-5, and while I think I'm doing a good job of not letting it affect my happiness most of the time, here is a rundown of what is wrong with the NFL's worst team:

*By unit, the Giants' offensive line and linebackers are the worst in the league.  You can only go so long not spending high picks on any unit before it catches up to you, and that addage has certainly caught up with these two groups.  They did use a 1st rounder on OT Justin Pugh in 2013 - and I think he'll be an okay pro - but it was too little, too late.

*The Giants are the NFL's easiest team to prepare for.  Offensive Coordinator Kevin Gilbride and Defensive Coordinator Perry Fewell are constantly out-schemed, and are horrible at making adjustments. 

*Metaphorically punch this team in the mouth early, and it will roll over.  Or, if one thing goes wrong in the early going, they won't recover.  Contrast this with another winless team, Pittsburgh, who in spite of being clearly outmanned, is feisty and battles you for 60 minutes.
*Eli Manning has turned back into the bumbling enigma he was criticized for being prior to 2007.  For a 10-year veteran, 2-time Super Bowl MVP quarterback, he throws a lot of dumb interceptions.  And long gone are the 4th quarter comeback wins that were his calling card from 2007-2011.   

*Most of all, the players are simply not very talented.  Turnover in NFL rosters happens so fast, that if you have 2 or 3 subpar drafts in a row, suddenly the cupboards are bare.  That has happened with this Giants team, with GM Jerry Reese having added so few good picks since 2010.  Add that to letting of key contributors like Bradshaw, Boley, Canty, Umenyiora, Blackburn, and Bennett, all walk for nothing in return, with no adequate replacements for most of them, and you've got a rotting corpse of a roster.
 

One man I didn't mention here is Tom Coughlin.  Sure, when you're 0-5, everyone is to blame, but Coughlin's way down on my list.  He's trying to make chicken salad out of chicken crap, and just can't do it anymore.  I don't think Vince Lombardi could win with this team.  I also give Coughlin a ton of credit for being front and center for the media after every loss, patiently answering every question when there is really nothing he can say.  Jerry Reese can hide, but Coughlin's got to take the slings and arrows.  Coughlin certainly can't say Reese gave him a garbage roster, even if that's painfully obvious.
 
I've seen some Giants fans say the 2011 run was the worst thing that could have happened to the franchise, because it covered up so many deficiencies.  I'm not one of those fans though.  I'll take a Super Bowl any way it will come, and if this was the Giants' version of "selling their soul" for a championship, then fine, mission accomplished.  If they don't win another for 17 years, it was worth it.  (That's the "Years Between Giants Championships" pattern in the Super Bowl era after all...1986, 1990, 2007, and 2011, makes 4-17-4...next one's 17 then, due in 2028.)  But, I do believe there is something to that "2011 covered up a lot of problems" theory, as well as two other theories that seem to fit these Giants perfectly:

*A team tunes out its head coach eventually

*Every dynasty - or even every good-to-great team - has an expiration date.

Pre-Preseason 2013 Giants thoughts

Giants owner John Mara said today that going into camp, his team has the talent to compete with anyone.  

I'm always wary of anyone in the Giants organization - even the man at the top - proclaiming the Giants to have a promising roster, especially with the dreaded "on paper" argument.

That said, I have more optimism going into 2013, than I had going into 2012, and here's why.

In 2012, they spent a full offseason on the banquet circuit, and being told how great they are. (I don't blast them too much for that, it's simply human nature that's hard to overcome.)

In 2013, they spent the offseason having missed the playoffs, and having finished 30th in the league in team defense. And it's not like the offense was the model of consistency either.

Distractions should be less this year, and that's when the Giants thrive. It won't be easy - we know this team just doesn't do dominant regular seasons very often - but I think they're in good shape.

Of course, one injury during camp can change everything, and there's a long way to go until September 8th.